4 poor meetings today

A typical Tuesday today with very little of interest and low grade racing at all 4 meetings - Ripon and Lingfield (all-weather) this afternoon, and Yarmouth and Hexham (N.H.) this evening. The best race of the day is the mile handicap at 16.30 CET at Ripon, which looks wide open, with several CD specialists in opposition, many of whom have already met several times. Ardmay (Kevon and Amy Ryan) won over this CD a fortnight ago, with Frontier Fighter (David O´Meara/ Danny Tudhope) runner-up, Dubai Dynamo (Ruth Carr/ P McDonald), who won this in 2011, fourth, and Osteopathic Remedy (Michael Dods/ T Eaves) fifth; they are now handicapped to dead-heat so anything is possible. Ardmay is the youngest horse in the field and may possibly confirm the form - although the Ryans are apparently worried about the firming ground-but we shall take a chance on Osteopathic Remedy, who runs his best races here.

The most interesting events at Lingfield are the two divisions of the 3yo maiden over 10 furlongs at 17.45 and 1815, with runners from some of the top stables - Stoute, Gosden, Cecil etc. All eyes will be on Air Of Glory (Saeed bin Suroor/ Mikael Barzalona) in the first division; not only was he a very expensove yearling, costing half a Million Guineas, but he is also the first runner from Moulton Paddocks since the steroid scandal concerning the previous trainer Mahmood al Zarooni. Saeed now holds the license, but it has been reported today that al Zarooni´s assistant Charlie Appleby is expected to take over once he is approved. Godolphin obviously want to put all this behind them and will be hoping that Air Of Glory wins, and also either debutant Hunting Ground (Kieren Fallon) or Thouwra (Barzalona) in the second division.

Another one hoping to put recent troubles behind him is Frankie Dettori, who made his comeback last Friday after being suspended for half a year. None of his Mounts so far jhave troubled the judge, but he could be among the winners this evening at Yarmouth, where he has 3 rides - Green Monkey for James Fanshawe at 18.55, Ssafa for Tony Lidderdale at 19.25 and Sound Advice for Keith Dalgleish at 19.55. At Hexham this evening, recent CD winners Balding Banker (Ferdy Murphy/ Tony Kelly) and Rattin (Sue Smith/ Jonathan England) are expected to follow up at 19.10 and 19.45 respectively.

Ripon - betting forecast:
1. Race: Searchlight - Captain Midnight - Ambiance
2. Race: Bobs Her Uncle - Imaginary World - Cabal
3. Race: Special Meaning - Order Of Service - Tuscan Fun
4. Race: Ardmay - Frontier Fighter - Dubai Dynamo
5. Race: Gallena - Bondesire - Bapak Bangsawan
6. Race: Sublimation - Rock Choir - Correggio
7. Race: Red Tyke - Amtired - Honoured

4 listed races today

There are 4 listed races today, 3 of them this afternoon in Ireland at Naas and the other at Windsor this evening at 20.00 CET, which looks at the mercy of top-weight Mince (Roger Charlton/ James Doyle); she won 5 races last season, all over tonight´s distance of 6 furlongs, finishing with a Group Three victory for which she must now carry a penalty. However she looks different class to her opponents here and we expect her to keep up the good form of the Charlton/ Doyle Team. At Naas, Johnny Murtagh is both trainer and jockey of Foxtrot Romeo, who runs in the 7 furlongs race at 16.05 CET; he has been running in better company, and his best form last season (when he was trained in England) was his second place in the Irish 2,00 Guineas, where Reply (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), possibly his main rival today, was just behind in third. The three 3yo´s could be dangerous at these weights, especially the lightly-raced Ghaamer (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen), who looks a likely improver, however we think that Foxtrot Romeo can continue Johnny Murtagh´s good start to his training career.

The other listed races are for 2yo´s over 6 furlongs - the colts at 17.05 and the fillies half an hour later. They were won by subsequent classic winners Dawn Approach and Sky Lantern last ydear, so will be watched with interest. The former race has only 4 runners and looks between Club Wexford (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) and Stubbs (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien); we liked the way Stubbs won last time and he is the selection. The fillies race is much more open, with 11 runners, including 3 from Britain, two of them trained by Richard Hannon. both last-time-out winners, Fig Roll (Pat Dobbs) and Corncockle (Wayne Lordan). Richard Fahey´s Sandiva (Smullen) was quite impressive when winning her only start, while O´Brien runs two unraced fillies: Bracelet, Joseph´s chloice, and Adeste Fideles (Seamus Heffernan). The latter has the best pedigree in the field, being a daughter of Giant´s Causeway out of dual classic winner Imagine.

Another interesting pedigree today is that of Juvenile Lead (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore), who makes his debut at 15.15 at Leicester. He is the first 2yo to run by first season sire Sea the Stars, in our opinion one of the very best horses seen wordwide this century. This is probably no race for betting purposes, but definitely a must-watch event.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lottie Dod - One True Love - Violet Hour
2. Race: Reply - Foxtrot Romeo - Parliament Square
3. Race: Fastidious - Slipper Orchid - Flic Flac
4. Race: Stubbs - Club Wexford - Sacha Park
5. Race: Sandiva - Heart Focus - Fig Roll
6. Race: Rain God - Highest Praise - King Oliver
7. Race: Bobskier - Nabat Ali - Empress Of Tara

Derby Day!

it´s Derby Day at Epsom and the famous race, to be run over 1 1 /2 miles at 17.00 CET, is still arguably the best-known horse race in the world. Twelve 3yo colts line up, but the race revolves around just one of them: Dawn Approach (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), unbeaten in 7 runs so far and impressive last time when winning the 2,000 Guineas, which has so often been the best guide to this race - Camelot, Sea the Stars et al- despite the much shorter distance. And that is exactly the problem: will he stay the trip today? Of course we will know for sure a few minutes after 5 o´clock, but the arguments are as follows:

against staying: he was a precocious 2yo, winning in March (!!) and then taking the Coventry at Royal Ascot, a race almost always won by a sprinter/ miler. The dam´s side of his pedigree suggests that he should be best up to a mile. Bolger, who also bred him, did not consider him as a possible Derby horse until Godolphin bought into him, and indeed according to Bolger´s own (unproven) theories, he will not have the required stamina.
for staying: he is a very relaxed horse and the jdeal type for the Derby. His sire New Approach, also trained by Bolger, won the Derby and so did his sire Galileo, clearly the foremost Derby sire of this generation, with 5 runners in today´s field. New Approach was also regarded as a non-stayer before he won the Derby and yesterday his daughter Talent won the Oaks over this CD. If you go back far enough in his pedigree, there is also plenty of stamina on the dam´s side.

Crucially, we think, he is the best horse in the race, with easily the best form and the highest rating; He has the class and every horse gets the distance once (so they say). We therefore think he will stay the trip today and expect him to win. Is he a good bet? That is a different question and depends on your idea of value. Shergar was probably a good bet when he won at slight odds-on, but generally hot favourites in big races are poor value bets. If Dawn Approach is at evens or less, as he has been for ther past few weeks, then he is no value; however there are signs today that his price is on the drift, and he may well go off at 6-4, or even better. In that case, he would be a good bet.

And if he does not win, who will? Obvjously an Irish winner is still likely, as Aidan O´Brien saddles no fewer than 5 runners, with his son Joseph on Battle of Marengo, Ryan Moore on the unbeaten Ruler of the World, as well as Festive Cheer (Seamus Heffernan) and Flying the Flag (Colm O´Donoghue), who are presumably the pacemakers. Clearly O´Brien will have some tactical plan up his sleeve, but if Dawn Approach is the horse we think he is, that will make no difference, and setting a very fast pace- or even a very slow one- would just play into his hands.

There are only 3 English-trained runners, and a home win looks very unlikely. Libertarian (Elaine Burke/ William Buick) is undoubtedly the best of them; he won the Dante Stakes as a complete outsider, staying on well,but we are dubious about the value of that form. He is also by New Approach, so that is in his favour.

Then there are the two continentals - French-trained Ocovango (André Fabre/ Pierre-Charles Boudot) and our German hope Chopin (Andreas Wöhler/ Jamie Spencer). Chopin has been supplemented and was bought by Qatar Racing after his very easy win in the Dr. Busch; that was over a mile, but the trainer is convinced that he will stay the trip. He looked very good at Krefeld and we think he has a realistic chance of finishing in the first four - but probably not of actually winning. However we certainly hope he runs well, and also Ocovango, who is by the great German stallion Monsun. Ocovango, the third unbeaten runner in the field, had done nothing wrong, and Fabre, one of the greatest trainers ever, sounds remarkably confident. His jockey is relatively inexperienced and has never ridden at Epsom before (he has a ride in the 2yo race two hours earlier) but he is very talented and that should be no problem. At his current price of 8-1, Ocovango looks a good each-way bet.
Our recommendations therefore are: Dawn Approach to win, if 6-4 or better; Ocovango each-way, and a small patriotic place bet on Chopin.