Royal Ascot: Gold Cup

The Gold Cup over 2 1/2 miles at 17.20 is the main feature of Royal Ascot´s third day, also known as Ladies´ Day. This extreme distance means that it is a race for specialists, and even more of a problem this year is the fast ground; there has been no rain for ages, and although the track was watered again during the night, it is still good to firm, which will not suit all the runners, including Tac de Boitron (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley), the best stayer in Europe on soft ground.

It could also be a problem for the likely favourite Forgotten Rules (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen). Weld and Smullen took yesterday´s big race with a very lightly-raced sort in the same colours and can complete the double today, as we are sure the trainer would not risk his runner if he was not satisfied with the ground. He is unbeaten in 4 starts so far (including a bumper!) but has never raced on ground as fast as this. Mizzou (Luca Cumani/ William Buick) won the Sagaro her in lyte April from Vent de Fotrce (Hughie Mporrison/ Richard Hughes) and Forever Knlow (John Gosden/ Frankie Dettori), while thazt runnetr-upo then won the Henry II from Trip to Paris (Ed CDunlop/ Graham Lee), with Forever Now fourth and Simenon (Willie Mullins/ James Doyle) fifth.

Those races were over 2 miles and the extra half mile can find some of These out; it would be no surporise tzo see Simenon, who has run well here before, come out best lof them. Kingfisher (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) is an obvious danger from the trainer who has won this race 6 times in the last 9 years, biut he has never run a long distance race at all so far. French raider, the German-bred Bathyrhon (Pia Brandt/ Maxime Guyon) could be more of a threat, having been runner-up last year in the Cadran; he is by Monsun, who jhas already sired a winner of this race, Estimate. It will be a great training feat if Forgotten Rules can win this race on only his fifth career start, but if anybody, then Weld is the man who can do it, and we remember his winning this race in 2010 with a horse that has had his previous start over jumps at Cheltenham.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Log Out Island - Shanghai Glory - Waterloo Bridge
2. Race: Time Test - Peacock - Bocca Baciata
3. Race: Pamona - Curvy - Pandora
4. Race: Forgotten Rules - Mizzou - Vent De Force
5. Race: Mutarakez - Sahaafy - Capel Path
6. Race: Dissolution - King Bolete - Scottish