Irish Derby at the Curragh

the Irish Derby, which will be run for the 160th time at the Curragh at 19.30 CET this evening, is with 1.15 million euros in prize-money one of the most valuable races in Europe, and today s field is very strong. Classic form is well represented and in fact the unbeaten Aga Khan colt Radanpour (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) is the only runner not to have run in the top classics; despite our huge respect for this owner, trainer and jockey, we cannot see him winning as he will to have improve enormously on his latest narrow listed race victory. The Epsom Derby looks the key race as 5 of the 8 runners were last seen there, with Jack Hobbs (John Gosden/ William Buick) an excellent runner-up behind his stable companion Golden Horn, who had also beaten him in the Dante. Storm the Stars (William Haggas/ Pat Cosgrave) ran on to finish third - 4 1/2 lengths back- with Giovanni Canaletto (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) fourth, Kilimanjaro (O´Brien/ Seamie Heffernan) sixth and Carbon Dating (Pat Shanahan/ Robbie Whelan) eighth. There has to be a very slight doubt about Jack Hobbs´stamina, but logically there sems to be no reason why he should not confirm the form. We certainly expect Giovanni Canaletto to finish closer today, but O´Brien - who has won this race 11 times!- probably has better possibilities in the filly Qualify (Colm O´Donoghue), who won the Oaks at odds of 50-1, and especially Highland Reel (Ryan Moore) runner-up in the French Derby; The last-named was running for the first time over a trip then and is up another 2 1/2 furlongs today, but shapes like a stayer and has been well backed since Moore was confirmed as the jockey. No doubt O´Brien will have some tactical plan up his sleeve with 4 runners to take on Jack Hobbs (named after one of England´s greatest-ever cricketers) but we can´t see any reason why the Epsom form should not stand up.

The rest of the card is also strong with a Group Two for 2yo´s at 18.50 and two listed faces. The group race can go to Richard Hannon, whose stable has won it twice in the past 4 years, with Log Out Island (Buick), whose second place at Royal Ascot is the best form in the race. The listed race over 6 furlongs at 16.35 can go to Dermot Weld´s filly Tested (Smullen), who is down in trip but very reliable; Gordon Lord Byron (Tom Hogan/ Wayne Lordan) is the best horse in the field, but has been below form so far this season. The mile race at 17.45 could see anotjher winner for the O´Brien/ Moore team, as War Envoy, who won the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot last time, should be able to take this step up in class.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Adelena - Antelope Canyon - Aspar
2. Race: Gordon Lord Byron - Tested - Line Of Reason
3. Race: Duchess Andorra - Byzantium - Sparkle Factor
4. Race: War Envoy - Sovereign Debt - Flight Risk
5. Race: Hasanour - Katimavik - Vitally Important
6. Race: Log Out Island - Argentero - Rockaway Valley
7. Race: Highland Reel - Storm The Stars - Giovanni Canaletto
8. Race: Awesome Star - Daneking - Silwana