Saturday, May 09, 2015

Lingfield: Derby/ Oaks trials and German raider

a very busy Saturday, with competitive racing all over. Please note that there has been more heavy rain and the ground will be much softer than expected, especially at Nottingham, Haydock and Hexham, hence many non-runners. However there has been no rain in the south, and the going should be good (even fast) at Ascot and Lingfield.
That should be good news for Peter Schiergen, whose 3yo filly Phoibe (Andrasch Starke) runs in the Group Three Chartwell Fillies Stakes over 7 furlongs at 17.05 CET at Lingfield. She won a maiden at Magdeburg last tme and obviously much more will be required today, but Schiergen won the race last year with Emerald Star and reports this one to be just as good. However she is up against some smart fillies, with fellow 3yo New Providence (Hugo Palmer/ Ryan Moore) only just touched off in the Nell Gwyn, while Lightning Thunder (Olly Stevens/ Andrea Atzeni) was runner-up in the 1,000 Guineas at both Newmarket and the Curragh last year. French hope Fresles (Pia Brandt/ Gregory Benoist) won a good race here on the all-weather at Easter, but to our mind the best of the 4yo´s are Kiyoshi (Charlie Hills/ Oisin Murphy) and Al Thakhira (Marco Botte/ Frankie Dettori). The former has a 4 lbs penalty for winning at Doncaster last September with the latter third, so there should not be much in it this time.
The two classic trials have been demoted to listed status, but could still play a role at Epsom, and this goes especially for the Derby Trial at 15.55 where Christophermarlowe (John Gosden/ Dettori) is one of the favourites for Epsom. He is unbeaten in 3 starts and looks a big prospect. He is part-owned by Coomore who also run Kilimanjaro (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore), who won a maiden at Dundalk last time; he is an unknown quantity but will have to step up considerably on that form here
O´Brien and Moore should certainly take the Oaks Trial at 15.20, as their candidate Wedding Vow, still a maiden, was runner-up to 1,000 Guineas winner Legatissimo last time. Ralph Beckett has a good record here, and his Bellajeu (Atzeni), up in distance now, could well be the main danger although she too is a maiden. The two German-breds here are both winners, but need to improve in this company: Affielo (Daniel Kübler/ Richard Kingscote) has won twice at Wolverhampton, while Vive Ma Fille (Mark Johnston/ William Buick) could not win a Pontefract handicap last time, although she is a sister to Vif Monsieur.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Archimedes - Strong Challenge - Riflescope
2. Race: Toujours L`amour - Supreme Occasion - Affileo
3. Race: Bartholomew Fair - Kilimanjaro - Magic Dancer
4. Race: Flag War - One Pekan - Nancy From Nairobi
5. Race: Lightning Thunder - Kiyoshi - Al Thakhira
6. Race: Tigers Tale - Captain Bob - Mime Dance
7. Race: Baltic Brave - After The Sunset - Zeshov