1,000 Guineas at Newmarket

A very open race for the 1,000 Guineas is in prospect this afternoon at 16.40 CET at Newmarket, with bookmakers currently going 5-1 the field. There has been some rain this morning, but the going is still likely to be on the fast side.

Favourite is Lucida (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning), who won the Rockfel here last September, beating Fadhayyil (Barry Hills/ Paul Hanagan).Lucida was subsequently well beaten in the Fillies Mile and we would not be surprised to see Fadhayyil take her revenge today. Aidan O´Brien has rather surprisingly taken out his more fancied fillies and left in only the outsider Qualify, with son Joseph up, while Ryan Moore has been booked for the same owners´ Legatissimo and that one has to come on the short list and possibly give the jockey a Guineas double.

Osaila (Richard Hannon/ Frankie Dettori) won the Nell Gwyn here, while the other major trial, the Fred Darling, also over 7 furlongs, was won by Redstart (Ralph Beckett/ Pat Dobbs) from jellicle Ball (John Gosden/ William Buick) and Tiggy Wiggy (Hannon/ Hughes). On 2yo form of course Tiggy Wiggy would win this, but we don´t believe that she stays a mile and will therefore leave her out; in fact Jellicle Ball ran a really good trial in our eyes and could come out best of these; she and Fadhayyil are out two against the field, although Legatissimo is an obvious threat.

It´s a day for filles at Newmarket and the main supporting feature is the Dahlia Stakes over 9 furlongs at 15.25, in which Longona (Peter Schiergen/ Andrasch Starke) represents Germany. She won the Diana-Trial at Hoppegarten last year and was also placed in the Diana itself. This is her best distance and we expect here to run well, but she faces some very strong opposition, notably the very smart Fintry (André Fabre/ Mikael Barzalona) and Royal Ascot winner Rizheena (Clive Brittain/ Buick).

The listed Pretty Polly at 17.50 is also for fillies and is often a good guide to Oaks prospects. Best of these on ratings is Winter Moon (Saeed bin Suroor/ James Doyle), third in the Filies Mile, but we prefer two unexposed fillies who were easy maiden winners last time and are now moving up in grade, Jazzi Zop (Gosden/ Dettori) and Zannda (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen).