Sunday, April 19, 2015

black type races at the Curragh

a very quiet day in the U.K. with two relatively low level jumps meetings at Wincanton and Stratford, with some very small fields as well, but a much better flat card in Ireland. Main feature at the Curragh is the Gladness Stakes over 7 furlongs at 16.50 CET, in which Aidan O´Brien - now coming strongly into form- saddles two runners, Due Diligence with son Joseph in the saddle and the 3yo Smuggler´s Cove, getting lots of weight from the older horses, with Seamie Heffernan. Due Diligence signed off last season with an excellent second place in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot; that is the best form in this field but one has to worry why he has been off so Long and whether he will get the extra furlong here. There are no such worries about the 3yo, both of whose wins came over this trip, and he is our selection. The jockey bookings mean little here. as Joseph cannot do this weight. Sruthan (Peter Deegan/ Chris Hayes) won this last year and is an obvious danger, while so could Alkasser (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) and Cable Bay (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) be in view of the excellent stable form.

The Alleged Stakes half an hour later has a strong field on paper, but some of the contestants have questions to answer. That goes especially for the O´Briens´ Geoffrey Chaucer, a Group Two winner at two, but who ran deploringly on his last 2 starts last year, when last in the Derby at Epsom and second last in the German version at Hamburg. Parish Hall (Jim Bolger/ Kevin Manning) was another top 2yo - in fact he won the Dewhurst- but his later form is a bit patchy although he has a good record over this CD and won this race in 2013. However he is penalised for winning a group race over this CD last year and we cannot see him giving so much weight to the Aga Khan filly Massinga (Weld/ Smullen), who has won 3 of her 4 starts and looks well cpable of winning here after scoring a fortnight ago in a fillies listed race at Cork.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fisherman`s Blues - Ard San Aer - Touch Of Frost
2. Race: Penny Pepper - Future Icon - Sugar Mill
3. Race: Beau Satchel - Elusive In Paris - Oor Jock
4. Race: Smuggler`s Cove - Sovereign Debt - Sruthan
5. Race: Massinga - Aussie Valentine - On Location
6. Race: Papa`s Way - Stronger Than Me - Moonmeister
7. Race: Aared - Morning Mix - Time To Inspire