Friday, April 17, 2015

Ayr and Newbury

plenty of racing today with evening racing getting under way and we have in all 7 meetings, but easily the best are Newbury on the flat and Ayr over jumps. Both are gearing up for big days tomorrow, with the former staging its classic trials and the latter the Scottish Grand National, but today´s cards are also interesting.

Newbury has 3 races for 3yo maidens on the card; These are tricky for betting purposes, as there is very little form to go on, but they should be watched carefully as there are well-bred runners from top stables engaged. The 3yo handicap over 7 furlongs at 16.25 also looks difficult, but the 5 furlongs handicap for older horses at 16.55 CET is more interesting and all 7 runners have a chance. Lucky Beggar (Charlie Hills/ Jamie Spencer) won this last year and on that form holds top-weight Steps (Roger Varian/ Graham Lee), who is up to listed standard. However we are not sure that they will like the firm going and prefer Green Door (Olly Stevens/ Andrea Atzeni), who has not won since taking a Group Two over this trip at Doncaster 18 months ago, but looks very nicely handicapped now. The 2 mile handicap at 18.00 is another open race. Dumbfounbded (Graham Mays/ Cam Hardie) finally came good and won on the all-wreatjher last time; he is relatively unexposed and can score again under 6 lbs extra, but Our Folly (Wilf Kittow/ Tom Queally), runner-up here last year, looks very dangerous.

The Queen has several runners at Newbuy, but her best chance of a winner is possibly at Ayr where Special Agent (Nicky Henderson/ David Bass) runs in the handicap hurdle at 15.30. He is certainly not bred to over 3 miles over sticks, but has won 2 of his 4 starts and this is possibly his true metier. Another very lightly-raced sort is Work in Progress (Dan and Harry Skelton) at 15.00, although he has ben put up for falling last time, which seems rather unfair. APMcCoy is here on his farewell tour and must have a chance on the well-handicapped Tap Night at 16.05.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Yet Again - Stubbins - Destalink
2. Race: Sanaadh - Ring Of Truth - Hawkbill
3. Race: Winters Moon - Star Of Seville - Ooty Hill
4. Race: Capel Path - Sugar Boy - Strong Chemistry
5. Race: Normal Equilibrium - Lucky Beggar - Steps
6. Race: Multilingual - Yasmeen - Vibe Queen
7. Race: Gimme Five - Dumbfounded - Karam Albaari
8. Race: Forever Popular - Shoal - Synopsis