Aintree Grand National meeting: day one

there are 5 meetings today in the U.K. and Ireland - but only one that counts: the opening day of Aintree´s Grand National meeting, which has a superb card starting off with 4 successive Grade One races. As always, the question is whether Cheltenham form will stand up here on this very different course - flatter, easier and much faster ground as well. There have been a full 4 weeks this time between the two meetings (usually it is only three) so that Cheltenham runners have had an extra week to recover from their exertions, but even so, we are not sure that the Cotswolds form will be confirmed in every case.

The Betfred Bowl over 3 miles 1 furlong at 15.50 CET has the 4th, 7th and 8th from the Gold Cup in the line-up as well as the mare Ma Filleule (Nicky Henderson/ Daryl Jacob), runner-up in the Ryanair. Holywell (Jonjo O´Neill/ AP McCoy) is a CD winner and ran really well at Cheltenham. he will certainly be suited by the better ground; but so will be Silviniaco Conti, beaten favourite in the Gold Cup. The latter won this race last year, has won the King George twice, and we all know that he is not suited by Cheltenham. We expect him to get back on the winning track today, although Holywell could clearly be a problem.

The Aintree Hurdle over 2 1/4 miles at 16.25 has only 6 runners but has an even stronger field. We have two past winners of the Champion Hurdle in Rock on Ruby (Harry Fry/ Fehily) and Jezki (Jessica Harrington/ McCoy) as well as German-bred Arctic Fire (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh). Walsh is riding him for the first time, as he nortmally the sztable´s second strong behind Hurricane Fly, but the Fly is not here and Arctic Fire, who was staying on well at Cheltenham and should certainly handle the extra distance and better ground, can finally win a top race after numerous places. Rock on Ruby is probably better over this trip and we think he could be the bigger danger, as Jezki seems to have lost some of his sparkle this season.

The opening novice chase at 14.40 is also over 2 1/2 miles and also has only 6 runners, 4 of whom ran in the Arkle over 2 miles at Cheltenham. Josses Hill (Henderson/ Nico de Boinville) did best of them in third, with Vibrato Valtat (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) fourth, and Clarcam (Gordon Elliott/ Walsh) and Three KIngdoms (John Ferguson/ McCoy) well back. We are a bit sceptical about Josses Hill, whose jumping is not yer perfect, and think that there could well be a different result this time.

However we certainly expect Cjeltenham form to be upheld in the 4yo hurdle at 15.15. Hargam (Henderson/ McCoy) ran an excellent race to be third to two stable companions in the Triumph Hurdle and should again hold Devilment (Ferguson/ Richard Johnson), a distant fourth, and Stars over the Sea (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore), well behind. 3 of the runners also ran in the Fred Winter at the Festival, with All Yours (Nicholls/ S T-D) possibly the best of them now, but the Triumph form looks much stronger.

The Fox Hunters at 17.05 also featutres several whio ran in the equivalent race ot Cheltenham, including the easy winner On The Fringe (Enda Bolger/ Nina Carberry), but the distance this time is much shorter and Chosen Milan (RE Luke/ E David), who ran well for a long time before weakening, could do much better this time. However the most likely winners in our view are Big Fella Thanks (Tom George/ Derek O´Connor), Pacha du Polder (Nicholls/ Biddick) and last year´s winner Warne (BR Hamilton/ Sam Waley-Cohen).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Josses Hill - Vibrato Valtat - Clarcam
2. Race: Hargam - Bristol De Mai - Devilment
3. Race: Holywell - Silviniaco Conti - Ma Filleule
4. Race: Arctic Fire - Jezki - Rock On Ruby
5. Race: On The Fringe - Pacha Du Polder - Warne
6. Race: Next Sensation - Ned Buntline - Ted Veale
7. Race: Call The Cops - Unique De Cotte - Serienschock