Thursday, April 23, 2015

6 more meetings today

once again we have 6 meetings today, but all at a very low level and some small fields as well. We have flat racing this afternoon at Beverley and this evening at Bath (very firm going) and Southwell (all-weather), while there is jumping this afternoon at Warwick and Perth while there is a mixed meeting in Ireland at Tipperary, with 4 flat races followed by 3 over hurdles.


The two top races at Warwick have only tiny fields and from the betting point of view, the handicap chase over 3 miles 5 furlongs at 15.10 CET is more interesting. Allthekingshorses (Philip Hobbs/ James Best) was expected to run well in a similar race at Exeter last week but spoilt his chances by poor jumping; with a clear round he must go close today, but we just prefer High Ron (Caroline Bailey/ Andrew Thornton), who should find conditions ideal.

The best race at Beverley is the 3yo handicap over 7 1/2 furlongs at 16.00 with another small field. This should mainly concern the two top-weights Pleiades (Sir Michael Stoute/ Graham Gibbons) and Bow and Arrow (Charlie Appleby/ William Buick). The former has not been seen since winning over this CD last September and on pedigree will probably need longer distances this year, so we go for the Godolphin runner, who has good form on the all-weather to his credit.

Philip Hobbs sends his main jockey Richard Johnson to Scotland for the second day of Perth´s meeting and the combination can land the main event, a handicap chase at 17.20 over 2 1/2 miles with another very small field, with Filbert. Johnson also teams up three times with Irish trainer Gordon Elliott, who has a 30% strike rate here - with Skilled at 15.20, Tom´s Article an hour later, and Eshtiaal at 18.25 and all must be seriously considered.

Of the various German-breds running today, the one we like best is Dandy (Andrew Balding/ Rob Hornby) in the 19.25 race at Bath. He is unreliable, but shows his best form on firm ground and in fact is now lower in the weights than winning over this CD last July with this claimer on board.

advance notice: please note that this column will be on holiday next week (from April 25 to May 2 inclusive).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Arranmore Girl - Ayresome Angel - Lady Mcguffy
2. Race: Thowar - Beach Action - Mustaqbal
3. Race: Pleiades - Bow And Arrow - Enlace
4. Race: Saved By The Bell - Leaderene - Full Day
5. Race: Next Stop - Atlantic Affair - Gleese The Devil
6. Race: Stay Strong - All My Love - Thankstomonty
7. Race: Thunder In Myheart - Goring - Liberty Sky