Sunday, March 22, 2015

Today´s jumping

Once again there is no flat racing today, but jumps racing at Wincanton, Market Rasen and Downpatrick, mainly at a very low level. The best race is probably the Ulster Grand National over 3 1/2 miles at 16.45 CET, but this is a pretty feeble Imitation of the real thing. Bose Ikard (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) is the form choice here, but we also fancy More Madness (Thomas O´Brien/ Paul Townend), whose form in the Paddy Power Chase at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting reads very well; that was on heavy ground, and he should be much better suited by today´s going, as will the favourite.

The safest way to bet at Wincanton is to follow local trainer Paul Nicholls and he should not go home without a winner or two today. San Benedetto (Sam Twiston-Davies) looks a near certainty in the opening novice hurdle at 14.50, but will be at an unbackable price. Mistress Mole at 15.50 and Southfield Vic at 17.30, both ridden by good claimer Sean Bowen, also have their chances, but in their races we prefer Knight Bachelor (Warren Greatrex/ Gavin Sheehan) and Brother Tedd (Philip Hobbs/ Ciaran Gethings) respectively. Mistress Mole is a half-sister to the smart Mister, but has so far shown little of that one´s ability; in that race we are also interested in outsider Catkin Copse (Richard Philipps/ Sam T-D), who comes to the start with meaningless form but could run much better on this drying ground; the same goes for By the Boardwalk (Kim Bailey/ Aidan Coleman) half an hour earlier.

The card at Market Rasen is very poor. Our best bet there is Grimley Girl (Henry Oliver/ James Davies), much improved since joining this stable and clearly well suited by these easy flat tracks. She won well enough over CD last time and can follow up, as she has only been raised 5 lbs, which seems lenient.

Downpatrick - betting forecast:
1. Race: Salsa Sensation - Utmost Zeal - Mystic Princess
2. Race: Knight`s Parade - Massini`s Trap - Sailors Warn
3. Race: Jumptoconclusions - Disputed - Paddy O Dee
4. Race: Heavenly Brook - Bose Ikard - Man With Van
5. Race: Ardmillan - Corporate Box - Halls Bridge
6. Race: Lord Fingal - Illusion Of Time - Mister To Mister
7. Race: John Monash - Lip Service - Celldomfed