Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Newbury today

by Newbury standards, today´s card is nothing special but it is certainly much better than the racing we have seen so far this week. Nicky Henderson, who is hoping to run superstar Sorinter Sacre at Ascot on Saturday introduces some interesting debutants, all partnered by Barry Geraghty. Sugar Baron at 15.15 CET and Carnival Flag at 6.25 are both running for the first time over hurdles after showing ability in bumpers, while bumper horse Might Bite at 17.00 is expected to run well on his very first race under rules. The novice handicap chase at 14.45 is interesting, even with only 4 runners, but they are all useful; Top Gamble (Richard Lee/ Jamie Moore) has won both his races over fences so far, while Far West (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies) and Citizenship (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) have also shown talent in this sphere, while Mountain King (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) makes his chasing debut. It is difficult to choose between them, but at these weights we prefer Citizenship. The best betting race is the handicap chase at 15.50, where any of the 11 runners could win, but we go again for the bottom weight - which should in itself be an advantage on this very testing ground- Russe Blanc (Lee/ Charlie Poste), with On Trend (Nick Gifford/ Tom Cannon) possibly the main danger.
At Lingfield, La Estrella (Don Cantillon/ Graham Lee) attempts to equal the all-weather record of 26 wins at 13.50. He iwon the same race last year and is clear best on ratings, and has only 3 opponents, of whom Investissement (Len Carter/ Charlotte Jenner) is the best.
There are also only 4 runners in the main event at Kempton´s evening all-weather meeting. This is a conditions race for 3yo´s at 19.40 which on all known form should go to Hawkesbury (Charlie Appleby/ Adam Kirby).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Norse Legend - Brook - Classical Art
2. Race: Far West - Top Gamble - Mountain King
3. Race: Sugar Baron - Admiral Miller - All Force Majeure
4. Race: Smiles For Miles - Premier Portrait - Ohio Gold
5. Race: Carnival Flag - Gabriella Rose - Maybe Plenty
6. Race: Chic Theatre - Might Bite - In The Hold