Sunday, January 04, 2015

Grade One at Naas today

easily the best race of the day is the Grade One novice hurdle at 14.30 CET at Naas today, which has been promoted from Grade Two and is in fact the first Grade One ever to be run at the Co.Kildare track. Willie Mullins, dominating the Irish N.H. season as usual, has 3 of the 7 runners, all owned by Gigginstown House, and their retained jockey Bryan Cooper has chosen to ride the unbeaten Tell Us More, while Ruby Walsh is on Killer Crow and Paul Townend on McKinley, who pulled up lame last time. Killer Crow has smart form, but Cooper has probably made the right choice and his mount, already favourite for Cheltenham, looks a champion in the making. He won a Gowran bumper with the greatest of ease and was 5-1 on (in a field of 18!) to win on his hurdles debut at the same track, which he won in a canter by 11 lengths. However a strict Interpretation of that form does not make him superior to the equally unbeaten Free Expression (Gordon Elliott/ AP McCoy), whose maiden win over this distance of 2 1/ 2 miles at Navan has worked out well. At the likely odds, he could be the value bet here, and his trainer (who also trains for Gigginstown and should win the first race here at 13.30 for the O´Learys with Fort Smith) is also having a tremendous season.

The ground will be very testing at Plumpton and it could pay to rely on CD specialists in the Sussex National at 15.50-and that means Reblis (Gary and Josh Moore) who has a good record here when the mud is flying and won this race last year. He has not shown much since, but is well handicapped now and back to his favourite track, is expected to return to best form. Another father and son combination, Viking Blond (Peter and Sean Bowen), as well as a mother and daughter team Flying Award (Sue and Lucy Gardner) should provide the main opposition.
Main event on a generally undistinguished card on the all-weather track at Southwell is the mile handicap at 15.40. Local trainer Mike Appleby saddles 3 of the 6 runners, all last-time-out winners here and all CD specialists. Our choice is Starfield, ridden by claimer Ali Rawlinson, who is 3 from 3 here and was a very easy winner last week.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Lisclogher Lad - Fort Smith - Fiscal Nomad
2. Race: Fine Rightly - Draycott Place - Blood Cotil
3. Race: Mckinley - Killer Crow - Couleur France
4. Race: Sir Harry Cash - Prince Rudi - Smokey Joe Joe
5. Race: Florishwells D`ete - Springbelle - Vole Au Vent
6. Race: High Expectations - Balkinstown - Broadway Twist
7. Race: Sir Will - Chief Bottlewasher - Biento Madame