Saturday, January 24, 2015

Cheltenham Trials Day

Cheltenham stages its traditional Trials Day today and there is no doubt that several of these races will have a strong bearing on events here at the Festival in just over 6 weeks time.

We start off with the Triumph Hurdle Trial at 13.40 CET and clearly the one to beat is Peace and Co (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty), a spectacular winner of his only British start and clear favourite for the real thing. He is likely to win today but is not a good bet at the likely odds and we prefer to go for a longshot here, Zarib (Dan and Harry Skelton), who also won his only hurdles start in good style and will be at a much more attractive price. It could be a big day for the Skelton brothers, who also have Value at Risk in the novice hurdle at 16.00; like most of the runners here (and also in the Triumph Trial) he is up in grade here, but he was an excellent bumper Performer and was also a good winner of his only race over sticks. He should win, although the more experienced Present View (Jamie Snowden/ Brendan Powell), who has a good record here, including over fences, looks a major threat.

Top hurdlers line up for the Cleeve Hurdle over 3 miles at 16.35, but the interesting one here is Saphir Du Rheu (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), who has been chasing; the stable are attempting to do the same trick here as with the same owner´s Big Bucks, who became the champion staying hurdler after failing to cut the mustard over fences. Incidentally, his half-brother Ibis du Rheu (Nicholls/ STD) runs in the Triumph Trial and is racing for the first time in the U.K. but is also not without a chance. Many of the hurdlers running today are ex-French, and Un Temps Pour Tous (David PIpe/ Tom Scudamore) could be the Cleeve danger. In any case we hope that Pipe and Scu can take the fourth hiurdles race on the Card, a handicapo at 17.10 with Dell´Arca, who has a German pedigree and is now running over his best distance.

The big steeplechase is the Betbright Cup at 14.50, a Gold Cup Trial. Pipe and Scu also have a great chance here with Dynaste, who won the Ryanair last year and was more recently runner-up in the ;King George; this trip is possibly stretching him, but he is top-rated and has an exvcellent record at Cheltenham. The Giant Bolster, another runner with a German pedigree, could be the danger; he won this race last year and has also run well in the last 3 Gold Cups, although he never seems to show this form anywhere else.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Karezak - Ibis Du Rheu - Bivouac
2. Race: Stellar Notion - Black River - Mosspark
3. Race: Dynaste - Many Clouds - Smad Place
4. Race: Easter Day - Sew On Target - Walkon
5. Race: Value At Risk - Present View - Vago Collonges
6. Race: Saphir Du Rheu - Un Temps Pour Tout - Reve De Sivola
7. Race: Kiama Bay - Diamond King - Royal Irish Hussar