Sunday, November 02, 2014

4 jumps meetings today

no flat racing in the U.K.or Ireland today, but 4 jumps meetings, with the best racing - as so often on a Sunday- coming from Ireland.
At Cork there is a Grade Three novice hurdle at 14.40 CET and novice chase at 15.45, both with small fields of mainly maiden winners moving up in grade. In the former race, Aidan O´Brien´s Marchese Marconi (Robbie Power) comes up against Willie Mullins´ Ask Vic (Ruby Walsh), who has won 4 of his 5 starts. Both have obvious potential but it is difficult to choose between them. It is the same situation in the chase, where Perfect Gentleman (Mullins/ Walsh), Un Beau Matin (Gordon Elliott/ Keith Sexton) and Sadlers Risk (Henry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) all come into the race having easily won their only start over fences. The big betting race of the day -and also the biggest prize-money- is the Cork Grand National over 3 1/2 miles at 16.20. Clearly specialists are required here, so 2011 winner The Bishop :Looney (Tom Nagle/ Danny Mullins) and last year´s winner Sword Fish (Cristy Roche/ Alan Crowe) both come on to the short list, even though their recent form is not so great. Unoccupied (Edward O´Grady/ Walsh), running for the first time since winning at the Punchestown Festival must also be considered, but in view of the tremendous stable form we shall go with Tom Horn (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry), who was 5th here last year on his only attempt at this distance.
Noel Meade can also win the big handicap hurdle at 16.00 at Naas with Prima Vista (Shane Shortall), although this is highly speculative since he has not run over hurdles for 19 months, having been racing on the flat and over fences - without much success- in the meantime. The Grade Three chase here at 14.25 lkies between Felix Yonger (Mullkins/ Paul Townend) and Moscow Mannon (De Bromhead/ Davy Russell). When they met in May, Moscow Mannon
finished in front and is now 9 lbs better off, so in theory he should win, but we are not so sure.
By far the most interesting race in the U.K. is the intermediate chase over 2 1/2 miles at 16.45 at Carlisle, which ´features two potential stars in Eduard (Nicky Richards/ Brian Harding) and Holywell (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy). The latter finished last season with wins at both Cheltenham and Aintree and is currently ante-post favourite for the Gold Cup. However we still prefer Eduard, who also looks as if he can go right to the top and will be better suited by this distance and also has a good record at this track.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Motown Bob - First Warning - Nichols Canyon
2. Race: Marchese Marconi - Elsie - Martello Tower
3. Race: Heck Thomas - Pulled Mussel - Young Dillon
4. Race: Perfect Gentleman - Un Beau Matin - The Crafty Butcher
5. Race: Tom Horn - Unoccupied - Sword Fish
6. Race: Mydor - May Dullea - Royal Chief
7. Race: Lady Aoife - Iamtoldiamgrand - Emcon