Irish Derby at the Curragh

The premier Irish racecourse at the Curragh stages its biggest meeting of the year this weekend and the Irish Derby at 18.30 CET today is obviously the top European race of the weekend. With well over a million euros in prize-money it is also easily the most valuable, but one could hardly call it a competitive race. Aidan O´Brien has already won it 10 times and an 11th victory seems almost a formality.

He saddles four of the 7 runners, including red-hot favourite Australia with his son Joseph in the saddle, and a miracle will be needed to stop him winning again. He was hyped up to the eyeballs before running in the Derby at Epsom and the convincing way he won that race showed that he is clearly the best 3yo in Europe over the classic distance. 5 of today´s opponents ran at Epsom, with Kingston Hill (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni) running a great race in second, but he never looked lilke beating Australia and we cannot imagine his doing so today. Even the weather favours Australia, as O´Brien has made it clear that he wants good, fast ground for the favourite, while Kingston Hill clearly would prefer softer going. However it has not rained for ages, and despite a lot of watering, the going is officially good to firm, exactly what Australia wants and Kingston Hill doesn´t. In fact it is still possible that he may not run if Varian is not satisfied with the ground, and Fascinating Rock (Dermot Weld/ Pat Smullen) - 8th at Epsom,- is another one who needs softer going. Geoffrey Chaucer (Seamus Heffernan) is probably, despite finishing last at Epsom, is probably next best of the O´Brien runners, but we cannot see beyond Australia here.

The Derby is not the only big race at the Curragh today, and the Group Two Railway Stakes for 2yo´s at 17.50 has attracted a good field. Royal Ascot form could be the key here, with Ahlan Emerati (Peter Chapple-Hyam/Pat Smullen) finishing third in the Norfolk, while Cappella Sansevero )(Ger Lyons/ Colin Keane) was runner up in the Coventry, with both Kool Kompany (Richard Hannon/ Fran Berry) and War Envoy (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) disappointing. The Coventry form is probably reliable and Cappella Sansevero, sold for a seven figure sum the day before the race, can get back on the winning trail here.

The Group Three Sapphire Stakes over 5 furlongs at 16.45 should in theory go to Maarek (Evanna McCutcheon/ Decan McDonogh), who is clearly the best horse in the race and best in at the weihts despite conceding a lot of weight. However this fast ground will not be to his liking and we shall take a chance on 3yo British raider Extortionist (Olly Stevens/ Keane), who we know acts on this going. LATER: Maarek non-.runner!

There are plenty more British raiders in the big betting race of the day, the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.15. With 25 runners this is extremely tricky; Richard Fahey had winners at 4 different tracks yesterday and can take this with Alben Star (Joseph O`Brien), 4th in the Wokingham last week. He is drawn 25 and historically high numbers have a huge advantage here.