Friday, May 02, 2014

Punchestown Festival: fourth day

the fourth day of the Punchestown Festival and one of the most eagerly-awaited races of the whole week, the Grade One Racing Post Champion Hurdle over 2 miles at 18.30 CET, the renewed clash between Hurricane Run (Willie Mullins/ Ruby Walsh) and Jezki (Jessica Harrington/ Tony McCoy), the two best hurdlers currently in training. The score stands at 2-1 in the Fly´s favour, but Jezki - a half-brother to yesterday´s big winner Jetson, won the race that counts for most, the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham, where the Fly could only finish 4th. Hurricane Fly had won his previous 16 races, including the Punchestown race for the past four years, and he has 19 Grade One wins to his credit, a world record. Normally we would prefer the old champion to the young pretender, but in this case we are not so sure, as it could be that Hurricane Fly is not quite as strong as he used to be. Both stables are in top form, and it will be a fascinating tactical affair between two of the best jumps jockeys of all time. Unfortunately the big two have scared off most of the opposition, and the only other runner is Steps to Freedom (Harrington( Robbie Power); the trainer has made it clear that he is not a pacemaker for Jezki but running on his own account and we will pick up 18,000 euros for finishing third. This is definitely not a race to bet on, but if forced, we would prefer Jezki, although Hurricane Fly´s fantastic CD record will make him hard to beat..

However Hurricane Fly fares, we certainly expect Mullins and Walsh to take the Grade One Champion Novice Hurdle at 19.05 with Vautour. The ex-French runner in unbeaten in 4 starts since moving to Ireland and was particularly impressive when winning at Cheltenham. This race is over half a mile further, but that should be no problem. The Shirocco gelding Lac Fontana (Paul Nicholls/ Noel Fehily), also ex-French, is miuch improved and can take the runner-up spot.

Nicky Henderson has had a good meeting and sets punters a pretty poser in the valuable mares handicap chase at 17.55, where he saddles the 3 top weights Nadiya de la Vega (McCoy), Utopie des Bordes (Barry Geraghty) and Une Artiste (Paul Carberry), who are also the 3 favourites according to the betting. Any of them could win and our Irish colleague suggests Shes Got Grit (Tom O´Brien/ Adrian Heskin) as a possible e.w. alternative.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mtada Supreme - Rohan`s Pride - Hasty Times
2. Race: Balnaslow - Some Tikket - Road To Riches
3. Race: She`S Got Grit - Une Artiste - Utopie Des Bordes
4. Race: Jezki - Hurricane Fly - Steps To Freedom
5. Race: Lac Fontana - Lieutenant Colonel - Noble Emperor
6. Race: Arctic Fire - Double Irish - The Plan Man
7. Race: Morning Run - Queen Alphabet - Cleeves Steeple
8. Race: Warne - On The Fringe - Fort George