Sunday, May 04, 2014

1,000 Guineas at Newmarket

5 meetings today, but with all due respect to the others, only one that counts - the second day of Newmarket´s Guineas Meeting with the 1,000 Guineas for 3yo fillies over the straight mile at 16.50 CET as the main event. With 18 runners, this is wide open, even more than yesterday´s 2,000 (in which we correctly predicted an upset, but unfortunately not the horse to pull it off). Just top-rated is the Godolphin filly Ihtimal (Saeed bin Suroor/ Silvestre de Sousa), but this is because of her two excellent performances in the UAE classics at Meydan. If she can repeat that form here, then she obviously has a good chance, but past experience has shown that does not always work out. On 2yo form, she is held by Rizeena (Clive Brittain/ Richard Hughes), who has the best juvenile form of these runners and would be a highly popular success for her veteran trainer.
The 2 French runners are undoubtedly dangerous - Miss France (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon) and Vorda (Sogorb/ Christophe Lemaire), especially as they both ran and won over this course last autumn, Vorda finished in front of Miss France in their trial, but that does not necessarily mean much, and we prefer the Fabre filly, who looks certain to improve and should stay this mile better.
Equally dangerous are the 2 Irish runners, both trained by Aidan O´Brien, with his son Joseph on Tapestry and Ryan Moore on Bracelet, both lightly-raced and beautfifully-bred. It is hard to choose between them, but possibly Bracelet has a slight advantage. Yesterday´s results seemed to indicate that the far side - low numbers - were favoured, in which case they are both drawn in the right place.
There are plenty more possibilties here, such as Frankel´s half-sister Joyeuse (Lady Cecil/ James Doyle) or Betimes (John Gosden/ William Buick), who is actually the only unbeaten filly in the field.
Buick also has the mount on our main fancy on the undercard, German filly Quaduna in the Group Three Dahlia Stakes over 9 furlongs at 15.40. Trainer Andreas Wöhler seems very confident about the chances of his filly, as she should be ideally suited by the ground and this intermediate distance; her win at Hoppegarten last month has been boosted since and the main dangers should be Integral (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan More) and Esoterique (Fabre/ Guyon). However with 8 runners (if they all go) she looks a very interesting each-way bet.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mighty Yar - Viewpoint - Van Percy
2. Race: Integral - Esoterique - Gifted Girl
3. Race: Secondo - Ashpan Sam - Ninjago
4. Race: Rizeena - Miss France - Tapestry
5. Race: Aktabantay - Barchan - Kassbaan
6. Race: Taghrooda - Sound Reflection - Night Fever
7. Race: Miner`s Lamp - Snow Trouble - Zee Zeely