Thursday, March 06, 2014

5 meetings today

5 meetings today, but again all at a low level, and there are some very small fields as well, notably at Carlisle, where none of the 7 races has more than 6 runners. We don´t like these events as the form is often unreliable owing to the likelihood of a false pace and a tactical race. However 3 runners here which in theory should win are ex-French Volcanic (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) at 16.15 CET, Edmund (Alison Hamilton/ Wilson Renwick) at 16.45 and Blake Dean (Sue Smith/ Ryan Mania) half an hour later.
There are some small fields at Wincanton as well, with only 3 runners in the main event, a handicap chase over an extended 3 miles at 16.35; Benbens (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) won so easily last week at Ludlow that he can go in again under a 7 lbs penalty and over 5 furlongs further. However our best bet here is in the opening maiden hurdle at 15.30, where there are 18 runners, the biggest field of the day. This is the German-bred Lochnagar (Venetia Williams/ Liam Treadwell), who showed useful form on the flat for Waldemar Hickst. He shaped very promisingly on his recent jumps debut and could be sharp enough to win today: any improvement in the going would also be to his advantage, as he is by Sholokhov out of a Surumu mare.
There is also jumps racing at Clonmel in Ireland. Best bet there could be Avondhu Lady (David Fenton/ Mark Enright) in the mares handicap hurdle at 16.40. A smart chaser, she is very well handicapped over hurdles and can defy top weight here.
At the time of writing it is not clear whether Stand Guard (John Butler/ Tom Queally) will run in the seller at 15.50 at Southwell. He was an easy winner here on Tuesday and if he wins today, he will establish a new British record for all-weather victories (26). In any case he faces tough opposition from Gogeo (Alan Swinbank/ Tony Hamilton). who is unbeaten in 3 races here this year.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Kymin`s Way - Bless N`Ject - Spot Fine
2. Race: Bonzo Bing - The Mystro - Rebel Laker
3. Race: Avondhu Lady - Jewel Star - Nurse Ryan
4. Race: Allez Vic - All Honours - West Of The Edge
5. Race: Kilcarry Bridge - Hop In - Time Please
6. Race: Golden Ticket - More Madness - Dantes King
7. Race: Lord Scoundrel - Golan Dancer - Vedettariat