Saturday, February 08, 2014

Newbury and Warwick

easily the best racing of the day takes place at Newbury, with the Betfair Hurdle over 2 miles at 16.35 CET the big betting race of the day - in fact this valuable handicap is one of the biggest betting races of the year and looks extremely difficult today with 21 runners, and a case can be made for all of them. The situation is further complicated by the heavy ground and by the fact that some of the top trainers have several runners - Nicky Henderson, who has the best record in this race, has 3 runners, and Paul Nicholls, David Pipe, Jonjo O´Neill, Alan King and Gary Moore two each. Willie Mullins sends over Smashing (Andrew Lynch) from Ireland and this ex-French runner, who has easily won both jhis Irish starts, is obviously a big threat, but our four against the field are Irish Saint (Nicholls/ Noel Fehily), Chris Pea Green (Moore with son Josh in the saddle), Cheltenian (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) and Totalize (Brian Ellison/ Aidan Coleman).
The rest of the Newbury card also looks tricky, though the fields are of course much smaller. 5 run in the Grade Two Denman Chase which Paul Nicholls, trainer of Denman, had dominated in recent years, and his Al Ferof (Daryl Jacob) is the likely favourite. However we are not totally convinced that he stays 3 miles on heavy ground and prefer Harry Topper (Kim Bailey/ Jason Maguire) and especially Katenko (Venetia Williams/ Coleman)The Grade Two Game Spirit Chase over 2 miles 1 gfurlong at 16.00 should go to Module (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), who is best in at the weights, goes on the ground and has solid form to his name. An outsider we think could run well here is Brackloon High (Brendan Powell/ Johnson) at 14.50, who runs his best races for this jockey.
The fields are even smaller at Warwick, with 3 races with 5 or fewer runners. With the Alan King stablecomoing back into form, we like Wayne Hutchinson´s m,ounts here, especially Balder Success at 15.40 and Midnight Prayer at 17.25. Once again, Willie Mullins has just one runner here, Glens Melody (David Casey) in the listed mares hurdle at 15.05. She won a similar race here a month ago and meets the same horses again, but L´Unique (King/ Hutchinson) could be dangerous.. We also go for bottom weight Rouge et Blanc (Oliver Sherwood/ Thomas Garner) at 16.15, while our each-way longshots here are Chalk It Down (Warren Greatrex/ Casey) at 14.35 and Promised Wings (Chris Gordon/ Tom Cannon) at 16.50.

Betting forecas Newburyt:
1. Race: Justification - Seedling - Little Jon
2. Race: Rydon Pynes - Andy Kelly - Upswing
3. Race: Al Ferof - Katenko - Harry Topper
4. Race: Module - Raya Star - Desert Cry
5. Race: Irish Saint - Dell` Arca - Rolling Star

6. Race: Smad Place - Sam Winner - Mendip Express
7. Race: Thomas Brown - Seven Nation Army - As De Mee