Thursday, January 30, 2014

Wincanton and Thurles

racing has been abandoned at Toiwcester today, but the meeting at Wincanton goes ahead, and the going there will obviously be very soft/ heavy, as it also is at the Irish N.H. meeting at Thurles.
There is some competitive racing at Wincanton, but our best bet of the day is Vieux Lion Rouge (David Pipe/ Tom Scudamore) in the opening novice hurdle at 14.40; he won 3 bumpers and looks a very smart recruit to hurdling judged on his easy debut win over this CD a fortnight ago. He has a 6 lbs penalty, but that should not stop him winning again. German-bred A Keen Sense (David Dennis/ Aidan Coleman) is one of his 13 opponents here; the Sholokhov gelding is probably capable of winning over sticks, but needs to improve quite a bid over the form he has so far shown. A German-bred with a much better chance in our opinion is Silsol (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) in the handicap hurdle half an hour later; this looks quite a hot race for the grade and top-weights Shantou Magic (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily) and Uhlan Bute (Venetia Williams/ Coleman) have already shown decent form, biut we are not sure that they can concede so much weight to the Soldier Hollow gelding, who could be well handicapped here. Venetia could well take the following handicap chase, in which both her runners Carrickboy (Liam Treadwell) and Bennies Mist, an easy CD winner last time, should be involved; this is another tricky race, but we feel that Carrickboy, who has been running in much better company, may be able to defy top weight. The mares novice hurdle at 16.10 should be between Keshi Pearl (Henry Daly/ Richard Johnson) and Tagrita (Nicholls/ Jacob), both penalised but both looking promising.
There are huge fields at Thurles, but more quantity than quality. Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh can do no wrong at present, and they can take the mares beginners chase at 15.05 with Chiltern Hills, despite the fact that she has been pulled up on both her chasing starts so far. Our main fancies here are Synchronicity (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell) at 15.35 and Sizing Coal (Jim Dreaper/ Andrew Lynch) half an hour later, both of whom finished runner-up last time and can go one better now.

Betting forecast Wincanton:
1. Race: Vieux Lion Rouge - Lady Charisma - Civil War
2. Race: Silsol - Ainsi Fideles - Uhlan Bute
3. Race: Bennys Mist - Bertie Boru - Forgotten Gold
4. Race: Keshi Pearl - Miner Distraction - Brantingham Breeze
5. Race: Tresor De Bontee - Notarfbad - Brick Red
6. Race: Richard`S Sundance - Shy John - Coombe Hill
7. Race: Brother Tedd - Davy Doubt - Dashaway