Saturday, January 25, 2014

Big Buck´s at Cheltenham today

An excellent card at Cheltenham today and no doubt many of today´s runners will be seen again at the Festival in seven weeks time. The good news is that there are hardly any non-runners (so far at least) and the bad news is that there was a lot of overnight rain, so that the going is now heavy. This may not suit Big Buck´s (Paul Nicholls/ Sam Twiston-Davies), clearly the star of the show, who makes his comeback after more than a year off with injury in the Grade Two Cleeve Hurdle over 3 miles at 16.35 CET. The 11yo started life as a very promising chaser, but was switched to hurdles after his last-fence fall in the 2008 Hennessy; since then he has been unbeaten in 18 races, 7 of them here, including this race twice. On his old form and on ratings he is virtually unbeatable today, but there must be a doubt on this going and after this long break; added to this is the confusion as to who would ride him, with Nicholls finally deciding on young Sam rather than the theoretical number one Daryl Jacob, who the trainer thought was too negative. We would love to see him win, but could not recommend betting on him at the likely price. He has 3 serious opponents today - Reve de Sivola (Nick Williams/ Richard Johnson), who won this last year and will relish the ground, At Fishers Cross (Rebecca Curtis/ Tony McCoy), who fell in the race won by Reve de Sivola last time, and Irish hope Boston Bob (Willie Mullins/ Barry Geraghty), who reverted to hurdles after two falls over fences with a very convincing win at Punchestown at New Year.

The Grade Two Argento Chase over an extended 3 miles at 15.25 is another top trial for the big meeting in March. Rocky Creek (Nicholls/ Jacob) and Houblon des Obeaux (Venetia Willams/ Aidan Coleman) finished second and sixth in the Hennessy, which is always strong form. Champion Court (Martin Keighley/ Ian Popham) is a course soecialist, but will probably find this trip too far. Harry Topper (Kim VBailey/ Jason Maguire) is smart, but we do not believe he can concede weight all round here, so our choice is German-bred The Giant Bolster (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore), who is not the most consistent but is well treated by the conditions, usually goes well here and finished fourth in the Gold Cup last March.

The novice hurdle over 2 1/2 miles at 16.00 is another Grade Two race and features the unbeaten Red Sherlock (David PIpe/ Scu); the son of Shirocco has won both his starts over hurdles with the greatest of ease, but meets much tougher opposition here. Aubusson (Nick Williams/ Lizzie Kelly) won over this CD at New Year, but the form does not convince us and we make Rathvinden (Mullins/ Geraghty), who fell last time after winning his 3 previous races, the main danger.