Wednesday, December 18, 2013

valuable all-weather handicaps today

the two valuable all-weather handicaps that had to be abandoned because of fog last week will now be run today and no problems are expected. They are over 6 furlongs at 15.00 CET this afternoon at Lingfield and at 19.20 over 11 furlongs this evening at Kempton. Both races are worth more than most German group races.
As the races have been reopened, the fields are not identical - though similar- to last week. In fact our original selection for the 6 furlongs event does not now run. The field includes two past winners of the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood, the best 6 furlongs handicap of the British season- Hoof It (Mick Easterby/ Martin Harley) and Hawkeyethenoo (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee); neither has won since their Goodwood victories but they have been running in top races and are still highly rated. Forest Edge (David Evans/ Adam Kirby) has won his last 3 races and is on a real roll; he beat several of these here last time, but that was over 5 furlongs, and it is possible that he is better at the minimum distance. Lancelot du Lac (Dean Ivory/ Jim Crowley) is a progressive 3yo who also comes here in top form; he is a real 6 furlongs specialist, but seems high enough in the weights. Obviously this is a very open race, in which most of the runners can be fancied, but our main hope is Addictive Dream (David Nicholls/ Joe Fanning), runner-up to Forest Edge last time but slightly better off now and more likely to be suited by today´s trip.
It is only about an hour from Lingfield to Kempton and most of the jockeys will be making the journey to the latter track for the big handicap there. Our fancy last week was Castilo del Diablo (David Simcock/ Kirby), but we shall discard him this time as he is drawn 14 of 14, which is normally the kiss of death here. In fact we shall make things easier, by discarding all runners drawn 9 or higher. It is still tricky enough, but our two against the field are Trooping the Colour (Steve Gollings/ Robert Winston) and I´m Fraam Govan (George Baker/ Crowley), owned by retired football manager Sir Alex Ferguson; both are nicely drawn, are last time CD winners and have had a nice break since.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Welease Bwian - Perfect Venture - Joyous
2. Race: Epsom Salts - Lacey - Swift Blade
3. Race: Passing By - Ifrika - Betimes
4. Race: The Third Man - Here For Good - Timeless War
5. Race: Lancelot Du Lac - Forest Edge - Addictive Dream
6. Race: Honey Of A Kitten - Tartan Gigha - Conducting
7. Race: Oratorio`s Joy - Syncopate - Ishikawa
8. Race: Mick Duggan - Keene - Echo Brava