Friday, December 06, 2013

Sandown today

Sandown stages a strong card today, although, as often happens, the best races have cut up badly. 6 run in the Grade Two Winter Novices Hurdle at 14.45 CET and only 3 in the listed Future Stars Chase at 15.20. In our view the latter event should go to Harry Topper (Kim Bailey/ Jason Maguire), who has often been underestimated but has won 7 of his 12 starts and took the Charlie Hall in good style last time. His two opponents, Rolling Aces (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) and Vino Griegio (Gary and Jamie Moore) also have plenty of good form to their credit, but we feel that Harry Topper is the better prospect and is also the more certain to stay this extended 3 miles.

Nicholls and Jacob can in any case take the novice hurdle with Saint Roque, who after a shaky start to his career has finally come good and won his last 4 races. He could go right to the top and we think he can extend his winning run here. The 2 he has to beat are both relatively inexperienced and taking a leap in class here - Beat That (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) and Oscar Fortune (Jonjo O´Neill/ Tony McCoy), both unbeaten over hurdles. Beat That was undeniably impressive when winning on his hurdling debut at Ascot, but Saint Roque looks a very tough opponent.

Paul Nicholls also has good prospects of landing a double at Exeter with Caid du Berlais at 14.30 and Foggy´s Wall at 15.40, both ridden by Nick Scholfield. Again they are small fields and both will probably start at odds-on, and so will Portway Flyer (Ian Williams/ Gavin Sheehan) in the handicap hurdle at 13.55. He has won two races in the last 7 days, both in a canter, and is bound to go up by a huge amount in the weights, so connections are understandably trying to cash in quickly off his old rating with just a 7 lbs penalty. He seemed to have about 2 stone in hand last time, and although the opposition was weak, it is no better today.
There is also all-weather racing this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Wolverhampton and Dundalk (Ireland).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sweet Deal - Violet Dancer - Abracadabra Sivola
2. Race: Foundation Man - The Italian Yob - Miss Ballantyne
3. Race: Beat That - Saint Roque - Oscar Fortune
4. Race: Rolling Aces - Vino Griego - Rolling Aces
5. Race: Top Dancer - Coole River - Fine Parchment
6. Race: Proud Times - Reverb - No No Mac