Saturday, December 07, 2013

Grand National trial at Aintree

The most competitive race at Aintree is the Becher Chase at 15.05 CET, a valuable handicap over 3 1/4 miles over the Grand National fences, which can certainly be regarded as an early trial for the 2014 running of that race. Many of today´s 24 runners ran in the 2013 version, with Swing Bill (David PIpe/ Conor O´Farrell) doing best in sixth. However we are more interested in On His Own (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend), who started second favourite but fell. Another Irish raider, smart cross-country performer Sizing Australia (Henry de Bromhead/ Andrew Lynch) could also be dangerous at the weights, while 13yo course specialist Baby Run (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies), who has not run for more than 2 years, would be a big threat on his old form here.

Mullins and Townend are also represeented by ex-French Gitane du Beröais in the listed 3yo hurdle at 13.30, and his Auteul victory is cettainly ther brst form in the field. However we prefer Poetic Verse (John Quinn/ Brian Hughes), a winner 4 toimres on the flat, who made a good debut over sticks. Another good flat runner - even better in fact- is Gabrial the Great (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) who makes his hurdling debut at 13.00 and can score first time.

Even with only 7 runners, the listed 3mile chase at 15.40 looks tricky; Wayward Prince (Hilkary Parrot/ Jack Doyle)won it last year and has good prospects again, but we prefer the German-bred The Giant Bolster (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore), who is not the most consistent but has run some good races, notably when fourth in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham. That form would certainly suffice here. Our best bet here is Lieutenant Miller (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler) in the handicap hurdle at 14.00; a smart staying handcapper on the flat - third in the Cesarewitch- he seems to us to be very well handicapped here.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Regal Diamond - Gabrial The Great - Villoresi
2. Race: Mystery Drama - Poetic Verse - Maypole Lass
3. Race: Lieutenant Miller - Woodpole Academy - Clondaw Kaempfer
4. Race: Ivan Boru - Keel Haul - Tantamount
5. Race: On His Own - Join Together - Across The Bay
6. Race: Katenko - The Giant Bolster - Unioniste
7. Race: Toby Lerone - Midnight Appeal - Shangani