Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham

excellent racing at Cheltenham today, and although there are 2 Grade Two races on the card, pride of place goes to the Paddy Power Gold Cup, a handicap chase over an extended 2 1/2 miles at 15.30 CET, which looks the best race of the season so far. Plenty of the 20 runners have smart Festival form to their credit, including Finian´s Rainbow, one of 3 Nicky Henderson runners and the choice of stable jockey Barry Geraghty; he won the Champion Chase in 2012 and was runner-up in the Arkle the previous year, but he has a huge weight as a result and we cannot see him winning here. The Pipe stable have always done well in this and are down to just one runner, the ex-French Ballynagour (Tom Scudamore); he won his first race in the U.K. in spectacular style, but then flopped in the Byrne Plate over this CD at the Festival as hot favourite, and has not been seen since. The winner then - at 50-1- was Carrickboy (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman), with Vino Griego (Gary and Jamie Moore) second. Johns Spirit (Jonjo O´Neill/ Richie McLennon) won over this CD at the October meeting, with Astracad (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) 5th and Woolcombe Folly (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Derham) sixth. At these weights we would expect the last-named to come out best, but our selection is Champion Court (Martin Keighley/ Ian Popham); he is locally trained, has a good record at this track and his trainer sounds very bullish.
The other handicaps are almost as tricky. In the handicap cahse over 3 1/2 miles at 14.50, the first two from last year reoppose: Monbeg Dude (Michael Scudamore/ Richard Johnson) and Bradley (Fergal O´Brien/ Paddy Brennan). The former, who also won the Welsh Grand National, is not so well handicapped this time and would in any case prefer softer ground. Bradley can easily be preferred, even though he is slightly out of the handicap. Burton Port (O´Neill/ Tony McCoy) is the class act here, having finished 4th in the Gold Cup last year, but must give away lots of weight. The dangers are Irish hope Spring Heeled (Jim Culloty/ Barry Geraghty) and Tour de Champs (Team Twiston-Davies)..
The handicap hurdle over 3 miles+ at 16.00 has another huge field. Sunnyhillboy (O´Neill/ McCoy) last ran in the Grand National and in fact has not won over hurdles for over 4 years; however he is undeniably well handicapped on his old form. Southfield Theatre (Nicholls/ Jacob) is difficult to assess; he is running in his first handicap after showing excellent form in novice races and could be better than his rating, demanding though it is. However out main hope is Cross Kennon (Jennie Candlish/ Sean Quinlan), who won this in 2010 and was runner-up last year. and always runs well in these staying handicaps.
The Grade Two 3yo hurdle that opens the card at 13.40 could go to Royal Irish Hussar (Henderson/ Geraghty), who looks very talented and had decent form on the flat for Aidan O´Brien; however he will be at a short price, as will be African Gold (Team Twiston-Davies) in the novice chase at 14.15, who is apparently very highly regarded at home and makes his debut over fences here.
The Grade Two novice hurdle at 16.35 looks very tricky with Indevan (Willie Mullins/ Paul Townend) and Timesremembered (Emma Lavelle/ Leighton Aspell) both penalised for winning relatively weak graded races. At thes weights we like Toubeera (Williams/Coleman), who has won her last two races, in lower grade, easily enough. In our view Mullins and Townend have a much better chance in the mares bumper at 17.05 with the unbeaten Supreme Ballerina.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Royal Irish Hussar - Azza - Art Mauresque
2. Race: African Gold - Shutthefrontdoor - Sam Winner
3. Race: Goulanes - Godsmejudge - Spring Heeled
4. Race: Champion Court - Johns Spirit - Ballynagour
5. Race: Southfield Theatre - Edmund Kean - Silver Eagle
6. Race: Timesremembered - Port Melon - Indevan
7. Race: Supreme Bailerina - Legacy Gold - Mayfair Music