Listed race this evening

A better-than-average all-weather card this evening at Kempton with a listed race over 1 1/2 miles at 20.00 CET the main event. Godolphin have won this race 4 times in the last 5 years and we expect them to score again with the lightly-raced and beautifully-bred Urban Dance (Charlie Appleby/ Silvestre de Sousa). The obvious danger is Gatewood (John Gosden/ William Buick), also very well-bred., who was a top handicapper last year and has decent group race form - without winning- in 2013. He is top-rated but has to give weight away all round and we prefer the younger horse, but would be very surprised if any other runner gets involved. Andrea Atzeni rides the outsider Aussie Reigns for Will Knight here, who probably has no chance, but the jockey can land a double on the two top handicaps on the card with Deserted for Luca Cumani at 18.30 and Horsted Keynes for Roger Varian at 20.30.

There is also flat racing this afternoon at Nottingham, where we are interested in how Norab (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley) runs in the 2yo maiden at 14.30; he is a half-brother to German Group One winner Night Magic. Mountain Fighter (Saeed bin Suroor/ Chris Catlin), who is by Dubawi out of a German mare, is also interesting in the second division of this race half an hour later.

We are hoping for a German winner over jumps today - Christian von der Recke runs his useful flat horse Cafe au Lait in the 3yo hurdle at Warwick at 14.50. He is making his hurdling debut here, but that should be no problem with this trainer, who was hoping to get Tony McCoy to partner his runner. However McCoy is at Chepstow (for just one ride!) but Tom Scudamore is certainly an adequate substitute.

Kempton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Maria Bella - Button Down - Talmada
2. Race: Billowing - Natural Choice - Sibling Honour
3. Race: Stevie Thunder - Deserted - Burnham
4. Race: Pretend - Beyond Smart - Wealth
5. Race: Mr Burbidge - Dumbfounded - Grandiloquent
6. Race: Gatewood - Pether`s Moon - Urban Dance
7. Race: Horsted Keynes - Apostle - Chookie Royale
8. Race: Platinum Proof - Nepalese Pearl - Atalanta Bay