Saturday, November 02, 2013

Breeders Cup this evening

this evening sees the second, and by far the stronger, day of the Breeders Cup and unfortunately we again have very late starting times, owing to the 9 hours time difference between here and California. The Europeans did really well yesterday with 3 British-trained winners (two of them tipped here), so we will be hoping for more of the same. There are European runners in the 4 top races, starting with the Fillies and Mares Turf at 20.43 CET. Here is it quite possible that our two runners Dank (Sir Michael Stoute/ Ryan Moore) and Romantica (André Fabre/ Maxime Guyon) will take the first two places. Dank has been in great form and loves firm ground; she was impressive on her previous U.S. race, easily winning the Beverly D at Arlington and will probably start favourite. However we just prefer Romantica whose owner and trainer have a great record at this meeting and whose dam won this race. She had no chance in the Vermeile last time, but had won a Grup One over this distance at Deauville and looks the one to be on here. Best of the locals are probably ex-Irish Laughig (Alan Goldberg/ Joel Lezcano), unbeaten this year, and Kitten´s Dumplings (Michael Maker/ Joel Rosario), but we will definitely be cheering on the Europeans here.
The Breeders Cup Turf has often been won by the Europeans, but something went wrong last year, when Little Mike (Dale Romans/ Mike Smith) beat Point of Entry (Shug McGaughey/ John Velasquez, and both will be in the line-up at 23.22 tonight. However we regard the Lloyd-Webber filly The Fugue (John Gosden/ William Buick) as the best bet of the meeting. Her very shrewd trainer has chosen this race in preference to the much easier Fillies & Mares race and we think that his confidence will be rewarded. Magician (Aidan O´Brien/ Ryan Moore) is an interesting runner; the Irish 2,000 Guineas winner has never run further than 10 furlongs and has been off since Royal Ascot. However this trainer also knows what he is doing, so he must be respected.
The race O´Brien really wants to win however is the Breeders Cup Classic, in which he has failed several times, often unluckily. His son Joseph partners Declaration of War at 1.35 (!) and he apparently worked very well at Southwell recently. He has the class, as he showed at Ascot and York, although it is still unclear how he will act here. Planteur (Marco Botti/ Ryan Moore) is the other European here; he is smart, but with all due respect he would be a big surprise here. Fort Larned (Ian Wilkes/ Brian Hernandez) was a surprise winner last year from Mucho Macho Man (Katherine Ritvo/ Gary Stevens), with Game on Dude (Bob Baffert/ Mike Smith) a disappointing favourite. They all look threatening, especially Game On Dude. who has not lost a race since.
The Breeders Cup Mile at 24.40 sees Olympic Glory (Richard Hannon/ Richard Hughes) tries to repeat his impressive Ascot win a fortnight ago. However this race on firm ground with its sharp bends and short straight is a totally different affair and we shall be amazed if he can beat the American champion Wise Dan (Charles LoPresti/ John Velasquez), who was so convincing last year.
We do not know enough about the American form to be able to judge the other races, but last year´s winners Trinniberg (Bisnath Pardoo/ Ravij Maragh) in the Sprint at 24.01, Mizdirection (M Puype/ Mike Smith) in the Turf Sprint at 22.05 and Groupie Doll (William Bradley/ Ravij Maragh) could all go well again over a CD that clearly suits them. In the 2yo races, the unbeaten juveniles Artemis Agrotera (Michael Hushion/ Joel Lezcano) at 20.05 and Havana (Todd Pletcher/ John Velasquez) at 22.43 could be the right ones.