Saturday, October 12, 2013

Future Champions Day at Newmarket

this is one of the best cards of the year with no fewer than 6 group races, 4 of them for 2yo´s - hence the name. Of course it is ridiculous to have the Group One Middle Park Stakes (6 furlongs at 15.35 CET) and the Group One Dewhurst Stakes (7 furlongs 16.10) on the card, but this is the result of the messing about of the calendar with respect to next week´s big Ascot meeting.
The Dewhurst has more prestige and also twice as much prize-money, but looks a match between Outstrip (Charlie Appleby/ Mickael Barzalona), who won a Group Two in excellent style at Doncaster last time, and War Command (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien), also an easy Group Two winner last time and earlier impressive at Royal Ascot. Coolmore seem to have all the top juveniles this year so we give slight preference to War Command.
The O´Brien´s also a strong fancy in the Middle Park with Great White Eagle, easy winner of both his starts and moving up in grade here; he is regarded as a major prospect for next year but can take this on the way. Fellow Irish challenger Sudirman (David Wachman/ Wayne Lordan) has excellent form and looks the main danger, but we also like Supplicant (Richard Fahey/ Ryan Moore), who keeps on improving and won the Mill Reef at Newbury last time in the style of a colt who could well be a top sprinter next year.
The Rockfel Stakes for 2yo fillies over 7 furlongs at 17.25 should stay at home, as Lightning Thunder (Olly Stevens/ Harry Bentley) has clearly the best form here; after winning her first two races she went under by only a head to smart Fabre filly Miss France over this CD last time; Al Thakira (Marco Botti/ Martin Harley), also Qatari-owned, won her only start in good style and looks next best.
The Autumn Stakes over a mile at 17.55 looks more tricky, although there could be another O´Brien winner here with Oklahoma City, who won the valuable sales race here last week. However this could be much tougher and there are several possibilities.
The day could start with a German winner as we think that Amarillo (Peter Schiergen/ Martin Harley - stable jockey Andrasch Starke is suspended) must have a decent chance in the Group Two Challenge Stakes over 7 furlongs at 15.05. Despite the trainer´s attempts to turn Amarillo into a sprinter, we think that this distance is ideal and his form when winning at Haydock in June reads well. CD specialist Highland Colori, a top handicapper who won the Ayr Gold Cup last time, could be the main danger.
The big betting race is the Cesarewitch over 2 1/4 miles at 16.50 with 33 runners! Obvuoiuslky thisd is wifde open and severasl runners have clearly been laid out for ther race. Hurdlers often do well here, so Domination (Charlie Byrnes/ Fran Berry) and German-bred Big Easy (Philip Hobbs/ Jamie Spencer) come on to the short list, together with Ebor winner Tiger Cliff (Lady Cecil/ Tom Queally) and another German-bred Oriental Fox (Mark Johnston/ Johnny Murtagh), who won the main trial., but they both have a very high weight. However the one we like best is French hope Smoky Hill (Mikael Delzangles/ Umberto Rispoli) who appears to be very well handicapped.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Darwin - Lockwood - Highland Colori
2. Race: Great White Eagle - Sudirman - Hot Streak
3. Race: Outstrip - War Command - Anjaal

4. Race: Domination - Tiger Cliff - Pallasator
5. Race: Lightning Thunder - Al Thakhira - Lustrous
6. Race: Oklahoma City - Sir Jack Layden - Safety Check
7. Race: Afonso De Sousa - French Navy - Tullius