Thursday, October 10, 2013

5 meetings today

plenty of racing today, but none at a high level. The only flat racing comes from Ayr this afternoon and Kempton (a.w.) this evening. The card at the Scottish track looks very tricky with 7 handicaps, the best being the mile rae at 17.40 CET. Most of the runners here are familiar as they seem to run every week, for example Ted´s Brother (Richard Guest/ Connor Beasley), and we prefer him to the recent winners Ingleby Angel and Silver Rime, who both a huge weight and are not sure to be suited by the soft going. We do not like backing horses who are out of the handicap, but make an exception here in the case of locally-trained High Resolution (Linda Perratt/ Samantha Bell), who is up in grade but has a good record here and will love the ground. When the ground is loike this, it genetally pays to back horses drawn on the stands side (Hugh numbers) and we therefore tentatively suggest Red Cobra (Tim Easterby/ David Allan) at 15.40 and Irish-trained Beau Satchel (Ado McGuinness/ Robert Winston) at 16.10 in the two divisions of the 6 furlongs handicap.
At Kempton this evening Richard Hughes has several rides and will be attempting to increase his lead in the jockeys´ championship. However we are more interested in the Godolphin runners as the stable has an excellent record here. Godolphin should certainly take the conditions race at 20.10, where they have 3 of the 6 runners. Snowboarder (Charlie Appleby/ Mickael Barzalona) flopped in a Group race last time, but this looks much easier; he is top-rated, wears the first colours, has a good a.w. record and should win.´
Over jumps, there are small fields at the two U.K. meetings. At Worcester we like German-bred Dawn Commander (Charlie Longsdon/ Jason Maguire) in the beginners chase at 16.50; he stays today´s trip of 3 miles realy well and this should give him the edge over Silver Commander - no relation - who is unproven at the distance. At Worcester, we think that two more German-breds have good e.w. chances: Quadrato (Tim Vaughan/ Michael Byrne) at 15,30 and Codoor (Longsdon/ Noel Fehily) at 18.30. The former is running for the first time over fences, but has one of the best conditionals on board, while Codooor an ex-Peter Schiergen runner- is running for the first time in the U.K. and may be very leniently handicapped.
In Ireland Willie Mullins´ powerful stable has not yet hit top gear, but he should win the beginners chase at 17.15 at Tramore with Passage Vendome (Ruby Walsh), very unlucky last time.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: El Beau - Rainbow Rock - The Grumpy Gnome
2. Race: Kenny The Captain - Pennine Warrior - Arabda
3. Race: Compton Heights - Angels Calling - Rise To Glory
4. Race: Black Douglas - Mysterious Wonder - Music Festival
5. Race: Our Diane - Starlight Angel - Opt Out
6. Race: Blue Top - Latin Rebel - Forced Family Fun
7. Race: Ingleby Angel - Ralphy Boy - Tectonic
8. Race: Lil Sophella - Rasselas - Deliberation