Tuesday, August 06, 2013

group race in Ireland this evening

easily the best racing of the day takes place this evening in Ireland. Cork, where they were running over hurdles yesterday, now has a good flat card, while the jumping boys move on to Roscommon.
Main event is the Give Thanks Stakes, a Group Three for fillies over 1 1/2 miles at 20.05 at Cork. Venus de Milo (Aidan and Joseph O´Brien) won two minor races in good style and then stepped up to Group One company to run an excellent second in the Irish Oaks 17 days ago. A repeat of that form would make her virtually unbeatable here. Midnight Soprano (Peter Deegan(/ MM Monaghan), a tough and consistent 6yo, won a similar race here in June and is the obvious one for the forecast. O´Brien also has a good chance of taking the listed race over a mile at 19.35. He saddles two runners here, Indian Chief (Joseph) and Snow Queen (Seamus Heffernan), with clear preference for the former, who finished third in the Dante Stakes; he then ran below that form at Royal Ascot, but over this shorter trip and on easier ground is expected to do much better this time.
At Roscommon, it is probably the safest policy to stick to the in-form team of trainer Tony Martin and jockey Ruby Walsh; they Combine three times this evening, at 18.50 with Garedelito, half an hour later with Corrick Bridge, and at 20.50 with Easy Vic. There are large fields each time, and they are no certainties, but it will be disappointing if they go home without a winner.
The four U.K. cards are all very poor. The best race is the 5 furlongs handicap at 20.40 at Ripon, which looks wide open. Most of these have met before, including the first 3 from a similar race at Pontefract 17 days ago, and the first two from this race last year. Our tentative choice is Rylee Mooch (Richard Guest/ Connor Beasley), who led for a long way in a hotter race at Ascot last time.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Candy Apples - Treadstone - Wateed
2. Race: Harpist - Penny Serenade - Peggy`s Leg
3. Race: Jeangeorges - Patrickswell - Almadaa
4. Race: Indian Chief - Fort Knox - Snow Queen
5. Race: Bunairgead - Midnight Soprano - Beach Of Falesa
6. Race: Crouching Harry - Crystal Earth - Hootie
7. Race: Mahrajaan - Gabh Mo Leithsceal - Hangar Five
8. Race: Lake District - Inkerman - Lateral Thinking


We don ´t normally bother with class 6 handicaps, but the 1 3/4 miles race at 16.30 at Ffos Las is interesting, as 4 of the runners are German-bred; the all have good pedigrees - 3 of them in fact bred by Schlenderhan- but have for various reasons not lived up to ther aristocratic breeding. We shall take a chance with Cabuchon (David Evans/ DJ Bates), out of Group One winner Catella, who recently finished third after a break of 2 1/2 years. If he does not bounce, he must surely be able to run well off an insultingly low rating.