Monday, February 18, 2013

Carlisle and Southwell

two N.H. meetings today, at Carlisle and Southwell, with all-weather racing at Wolverhampton.
Carlisle has the best card with some quite competitive handicaps, notably the chase over 3 1/4 miles at 16.40 CET. Top-weight Sydney Paget (Donald McCain/ Henry Brooke) and Emperors Choice (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) are the likely favourites, being last-time-out winners from top stables, but both are basically novices moving into handicap company for the first time. Of course they could well be up to it, but we prefer seasoned handicappers in such races, and go for You Know Yourself (Sue Smith/ Mr.C.Bewley) and Markadam (Dianne and Liz Sayer), who is unbeaten in 3 starts here but has been up 12 lbs for an easy CD win 12 days ago. However McCain and Brooke should not the leave the course empty-handed, as we expect Moscow Presents to take the opening novice hurdle at 15.00, while lightly-raced Veloce also has decent prospects in the handicap hurdle at 16.05, and the trainer´s Nowurhurlin (John Kington) also has a chance of repeating his 2012 victory in the handicap hurdl e at 17.40.
Southwell holds its first jumps meeting for 3 months, as a result of the flooding there in the autumn, and the honour of winning their first race of 2013 could go to the Irish challenger Radhac Na Mara (Jim Dreaper/ Steven Clements) at 14.50. Tony McCoy is the leading jockey here by a huge margin and has some interesting mounts for Jonjo O´Neill today. Don´t be Late was placed in 2 bumpers and must have a chance of getting off the mark over hurdles at 16.25, although the logical one here must be the mare Terre du Vent (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), who was a group class stayer on the flat in France, and although she has failed to be placed in 4 starts over hurdles in the U.K., she is surely capable of winning before long. The handicap bhurdle over 3 miles at 17.00 is ther most interestinhg event here. McCoy´s mount Minella for Steak, owned by the Coolmore wives, is very lightly raced and hard to assess, while Always Waining (Peter Bowen/ Tom O´Brien) is a top chaser and Aintree specialist.who is amazingly well handicapped over hurdles; however he has not won over the sticks for almost 5 years and has repeatedly flopped in this discipline. Royal Deal (Mick Easterby/ Jake Greenall) is still a maiden but usually finishes in the money, while Mr.Puck (Keith and James Reveley) is consistent and looks the most reliable candidate in a tricky race.
At Wolverhampton we shall give one more chance to Waldsee, who has an excellent German pedigree (out of classic winner Wurftaube from one of the top German families) but has so far been a miserable failure, winning just one of his 26 starts. Now trained by Sean Curran, he runs in the opening amateur riders handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 15.10.

Betting forecast Carlisle:
1. Race: Moscow Presents - Madam Lilibet - Beaney Tunes
2. Race: Micro Mission - Bollin Fiona - Mia Matriarch
3. Race: Veloce - Renoyr - Fleet Dawn
4. Race: Sydney Paget - Emperor`S Choice - Markadam
5. Race: Armedanddangerous - Billy Cuckoo - Mannered
6. Race: Walser - Nowurhurlin - Lexington Bay