Wednesday, February 20, 2013

5 meetings today

Plenty of racing today, but the all-weather fixtures at Lingfield this afternoon and Kempton this evening are of little account. The best of the 3 jumps cards is at Doncaster, where we might see some late Cheltenham clues (the Festival starts in less than 3 weeks!) and the ground is probably the best we have had all winter.

Swynmor (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson) in the 4yo hurdle at 15.20 CET is the best bet of the day He was an impressive winner of his debut at Newbury and would have won a Grade One race at Chepstow in early January but for falling at the last. There are some quite useful 4yo´s in opposition, but if he stays on his feet, he looks hard to beat. There are some potentially smart novice hurdlers lining up at 16.25, including Cheltenian (Philip Hobbs/ Johnson), winner of the Cheltenham Champion Bumper in 2011 but not seen since, and New Years Eve (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan), runner-up in that race last year, but an odds-on flop over hurdles last time. On this ground New Years Eve, who is out of an Acatenango mare, definitely deserves another chance, while Nicky Henderson´s two runners Minella Forfitness ( Barry Geraghty), who won here earlier in the month, and Snake Eyes (Tony McCoy) also look dangerous, while Valdez (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) also has good form but carries a penalty. Hobbs and Johnson also have good chances with Talkonthestreet in the novice chase at 14.45 and also Marufo in the veterans handicap chase at 15.50, although this is a very open rce. So is the handicap hurdle at 16.55, but we like the German-bred Dawn Twister (Lucy Wadham/ Leighton Aspell) here, who can also benefit from the better going - although we remember his winning a listed race on very soft ground at Baden-Baden a couple of years ago.

Tim Vaughan can also be on the scorecard at Ludlow, where Titus Mills (Christian Williams) makes his hurdling debut at 15.10. He was a smart 2yo for Brian Meehan, and ran in the Racing Post Trophy; however he finished last there and was then off the track for 1 1/2 years. His flat form last year was less inspiring, but we would not be at all surprised to see him make a name for himself in this new metier. The best race at Ludlow is the 2 mile handicap hurdle at 16.45; Drussell (Martin Bosley/ Rachel King) has won his last 2 races, both over this CD, and now moves up in grade with a good chance of completing the hat-trick. The top-weights Ultimate (Brian Ellison/ Danny Cook) and Dreambrook Lady (Jeremy Scott/ Nick Scholfield) have both been running in better events and are the main dangers.

Most interesting event at the Irish meeting at Punchestown is the 4yo bumper at 17.45. Aidan O´Brien was of course a top N.H. jockey and trainer before he started concentrated on the flat, and here he saddles his first N.H. runners for almost 9 years - Egyptian Warrior (with daughter Sarah aboard) and Shield (Kate Harrington, daughter of Jessica). Both were bred by his wife Anne-Marie and run in her colours. Certainly they are the best-bred runners here, especially the former who is an own-brother to Kingsbarns, the current favourite for the Derby, but we cannot recommend a bet, as the fact that they are now making such a late debut suggests that not everything has gone to plan for them and they are not likely to start at a generous price.

Kempton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Danziger - Russian Bullet - Even Bolder
2. Race: Abigails Angel - Conducting - Whitby Jet
3. Race: Hurricane Spirit - Masai Moon - Only Ten Per Cent
4. Race: Sommersturm - Spirit Of Gondree - Tinkerbell Will
5. Race: Free Spin - Forest Edge - Tioman Pearl
6. Race: Life Of Laughter - Scribe - Guards Chapel
7. Race: Lytham - Avon Supreme - Cuthbert