Welsh Grand National at Chepstow

The Welsh Grand National, which will be run today - a week late- over almost 3 3/4 miles at 16.20 CET, is second only to the "real thing" at Aintree in terms of prestige and prize-money of all the Grand Nationals run during the season. The big difference is that this race is run in the winter and usually on very heavy ground; that is certainly the case today, with the heaviest ever reading of the going. On top of that, it has now not rained for 4 days, which means that the ground is now extremely testing. Most of the 18 runners are heavy ground specialists, but it is still going to be a real slog.

Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis/ Tony McCoy) is the obvious favourite here, after his excellent sixth place in the hennessy; even though he was beaten 27 lengths this was still good form (with several of these runners behind) as the winner Bobsworth is now the favourite for the Gold Cup, and the runner-up Tidal Bay has since won fhe Grade One Lexus Chase in Ireland. He has been dropped two pounds since, so is well handicapped, jumps well, stays well, acts on the ground and has a good record here. So what´s not to like? Firstly, there are several opponents with equally strong credentials, secondly, this is a bad race for favourites and thirdly, no Welsh horse has won for almost half a century. Rebecca Curtis is one of the most successful trainers in Wales, as well as the best-looking, and we think this horse has to go on the short list, but is no value at the current price of around 3-1.

Giles Cross (Victor Dartnall/ Denis O´Regan) is an obvious alternative, having finished runner-up here the last two times. He clearly loves this CD and his form is pretty solid, however is not so well handicapped this time and has not run since being pulled up at Aintree in April. On top of that, his stable had to be closed for six weeks following an outbreak of equine herpes, and has had no winners since, so we will reluctantly discard him.

On the same weight is Michel le Bon (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh), whose trainer has a good record here and whose jockey can do no wrong at present. He looks asof he has been traimned for the race and Nicholls certainly knows the time of day with these stayers, so he goes on the short list, together with Viking Blond (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies), who started favourite here last year but was pulled up; he seems better this season, has run two good races in defeat and has been dropped 5 pounds. Our best outsider here is oldtimer Mon Mome (Venetia Williams/ Liam Treadwell), who has not won since scoring at Aintree in 2009 with this jockey up; obviously he stays very well and is now attractively handicapped. This is a really open race and we can make out a case for every runner, even the two out of the handicap, but we hope that we have pinpointed the winner.

This is Chepstow´s biggest meeting of the year and the rest of the card is also classy, but very difficult for punters. The Grade One 4yo hurdle at 14.35 is the main supporting feature and looks very open. Caid du Berlais (Nicholls/ Walsh) and Vasco d´Ycy (Sara Humphreys/ Jack Doyle) are both ex-French and French hurdlers seems to have an advantage over their British and Irish counterparts at this age. The latter has already shown good form in the U.k. while the former makes his British debut here. but is apparently highly regarded in the Nicholls stable. Ruacana (John Ferguson/ O´Regan) and Swynmor (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson) are both useful flat performers who made a winning debut over sticks, but there must be a slight doubt as to how they will adapt to ground as heavy as this, so on this ocasion we side with the Frenchies.

It could well be another profitable Saturday for the Nicholls/ Walsh team, as Sin Bin at 13.25, Keppols Hill at 14.00 and Cedre Bleu at 15.10 all have good chances, although none of these races is exactly easy. They also have Roger Beantown in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at 15.45, but we just prefer Pension Plan (Peter Bowen/ David Casey) in a very tricky event.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Sin Bin - Oscar Magic - Eleven Fifty Nine
2. Race: Keppols Hill - Arthurian Legend - Badgers Cove
3. Race: Swnymor - Caid Du Berlais - Ruacana
4. Race: Cedre Bleu - Shoegazer - Mahogany Blaze
5. Race: Shotgun Paddy - Pension Plan - Tell Me Y
6. Race: Teaforthree - Michel Le Bon - Viking Blond
7. Race: Bob Ford - Be Bop Boru - Seebright