Saturday, January 19, 2013

Naas, Kempton and Meydan

The ground will be very testing at Naas, but this is a good card with two graded races.The Grade Two novice chase at 15.10 CET looks at the mercy of Aupcharlie (Willie Mullins/ Andrew Lynch), who was caught on the line last time in a Grade One at Leopardstown. Willie Mullins can also take the novice hurdle at16.45 with the unbeaten Un Atout (Davy Russell), most impressive last time but facing better opposition now, and also has a good chance in the Grade Two hurdle at 14.35 with So Young (Ruby Walsh), who seems to have only Solwhit (Charlie Byrnes/ Davy Russell) to beat. Solwhit has won 11 of his 22 races and has been a most consistent performer over the years, but there must be a slight risk of the bounce factor here; in theory he cannot get beaten in receipt of 7 lbs from So Young, but we wouldn´t bet on it. Our best longshot here is Wild Salmon (William Murphy/ Andrew Lynch) in the 2 mile handicap chase at 16.50; he has never yet even been placed, but has been dropped in t he weights and is coming down in distance, and that might just be the recipe for success.

Kempton stages quite a decent card and punters should swatch out for jockey changes, as some riders are switching here after being booked for abandoned Lingfield, for example Luke Morris. He partners the likely favourite and bottom-weight Noble Silk for Lucy Wadham in the 11 furlongs handicap at 15.55, and this consistent performer has an obvious chance after winning here 12 days ago, although moving up in grade now. However we slightly prefer top-weight Spifer (Marco Botti/ Andrea Atzeni) who is down in grade after running without much success in better company. Botti and Atzeni can also combine to take the mile handicap at 15.20 with lightly-raced Haftohaf, although oldtimer Red Somerset (Mike Murphy/ Kieren O´Neill) was not far behind him over this CD 9 days ago and is now better off at the weights; top-weight Angelic Upstart (Andrew Balding/ Thomas Brown) could also be dangerous. The one horse we would really like to see win here - although we admit it is very much a lohg shot, is 12yo Dvinsky (Paul Howling/ Franny Norton) in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.30. He is running for the 223rd time - a British record- but has been below form on his recent starts; however he has been dropped to his lowest ever rating, has one of our favourite jockeys aboard and is racing over his best CD- so miracles might happen!

British bookies will also be showing racing from Meydan this afternoon. This is a domestic fixture, not part of the Dubai World Cup Carnival, and therefore below the standard and well below the prize-money at the Thursday meetings here. With mainly handicaps and large fields, this looks very tricky for punters, but we like Royal Ridge (Mike de Kock/ Paul Hanagan) in the 6 furlongs handicap at 17.15.