Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Lingfield, Kempton and Limerick

One horse that certainly catches the eye at Lingfield this afternoon is Schlenderhan-bred Sommersturm (David Evans/ William Carson) in the 1 mile 5 furlongs handicap at 15.30 CET. He had quite smart form in Germany (5 years ago!) but has shown very little since coming to the U.K., where Barney Curley had him for a long time. He showed slightly better form last time over a mile at Wolverhampton, but he is bred to get today´s distance (by Tiger Hill out of a Monsun mare) and loff this low rating and in this weak company, he could well run a big race. Another one we like here is Docofthebay (Scott Dixon/ Ian Mongan) in the 7 furlongs handicap at 16.30. He has not achieved much for this trainer, his owner´s son, but is now dropped in grade and in the ratings, and could also go well; we have not forgotten that his last win was in a listed race here 14 months ago.

Andrew Balding clould score here with Not Rigg (Liam Keniry) in the 3yo maiden at 14.30 and could follow up this evening at Kempton with Sweet Liberta (Daniel Muscutt) in the 1 1/2 mile handicap at 17.30; she seems much improved and has won both her starts in 2013 and has also gone well in the past for her young jockey. Ruby Walsh can land a double at Limerick with The Paparazzi Kid for Willie Mullins at 14.45 - he has been runner-up 4 times running, there seems nothing wrong with his attitude - and Caballo de Marcus for Conor O´Dwyer half an hour later, who was caught on the line over this CD last time. We also like Ponmeword (Eric McNamara/ RJ Jones) here in the handicap hurdle at 15.45; he has never actually won over the sticks, but scored nicely over fences here at Christmas and seems well handicapped.

If racing goes ahead at Ayr (not yet certain), and if David Pipe sends his runners on the long journey from Somerset to Scotland (also not yet certain), then Consigliere (Kieron Edgar) must have a good chance in the handicap chase at 16.10; he ran really well in a better race at Wincanton last time. Otherwise we shall go along with German-bred Los Nadis (Jim Goldie/ Henry Brooke) here; he has never won a chase, but is well handicapped on his hurdling form, likes this track and also goes well on the heavy.

Lingfield - betting forecast:
1. Race: Red Somerset - Paphos - Tornado Force
2. Race: Not Rigg - Keene`s Pointe - Irish Dream
3. Race: Story Writer - Shirazz - Waving
4. Race: Comedy House - Broxbourne - Celtic Charlie
5. Race: Muhandis - Only Ten Per Cent - Storm Runner
6. Race: Al`s Memory - Delft - Prince Of Burma
7. Race: Basle - Spartic - Amis Reunis