Thursday, January 31, 2013

4 meetings today

For a change, a full programme today, with N.H. racing at Towcester and Wincanton, and all -weather flat racing this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Wolverhampton. However the Irish N.H. meeting at Thurles has been abandoned and it is hoped that it will be repeated next week.

The best racing is at Wincanton which has quite a decent card for a midweek fixture. Venetiua Willoiams continues in terrific form and we expect herb to be among the winners again. She has 2 runners in the veterans handicap chase over 3 miles+ at 16.10, and although stable jockey Aidan Coleman rides Pentiffic, we prefer Mon Mome (Harry Challoner), who has not won since his Grand National victory on 2009. However the handicapper has given him a real chance and dropped him to his lowest rating in ages. Last time he was beaten a long way in the Welsh Grand National, but obviously this is less tough. Michel le Bon (Paul Nicholls/ Harry Derham) also ran in that race but was pulled up; the Nicholls stable always does well at this track, but Michel seems very unreliable and we cannot fancy him under top weight. Desperate Dex (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) won over this CD in October and had run 3 good races since; he is 4 lbs out of the handicap, but still better off with Pentiffic, wh o finished behind him at Catterick last time. Venetia also has good chances with Tenor Nivernais (Robbie Dunne) in the novice chase at 15.10, and Carrickboy (Coleman), who has top weight in the handicap chase half an hour later, after winning well at Chepstow last time; Ballyalia Man (George/ Brennan) is the obvious danger after his easy winner over this CD last time. We have backed Vic Venturi in the last 3 Grand Nationals, but he failed to complete each time; he now reappears in the hunter chase at 16.40 with top amateur Sam Waley-Cohen on board amd we hope to recover some of those losses today.

The card at Towcester is less demanding but Williams can be on the scorecard here as well with Vinnies Litle Lamb (Sam Thomas) in the mares maiden hurdle at 14.50 and Gorgehous Liiege (Liam Treadwell) at 16.50. 14yo Kinkeel, tailed off behind Sprinter Sacre last Saturday. runs in the conditional jockeys handicap chase at 15.50; this is his level and he has run well here before so he could have a chance off bottom weight on his 121st career start. Thunderstorm (Philip Hobbs/ Tony McCoy) will be hot favourite to complete a hat-trick in the handicap hurdle at 15.20, but we prefer an each-way speculation on German-bred Marleno (Tony Middleton/ Charlie Poste)., who is now well handicapped and goes on the ground.

Wincanton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Parsnip Pete - Bury Parade - Nobunaga
2. Race: Ambion Wood - Tenor Nivernais - Milans Well
3. Race: Ballyallia Man - Carrickboy - Arthurian Legend
4. Race: Michel Le Bon - Master Overseer - Pentiffic
5. Race: Nicto De Beauchene - Vic Venturi - Mobaasher
6. Race: Big Occasion - Flying Award - Alderluck