Thursday, December 06, 2012

Racing still doubtful

At the time of writing (10.45 CET), racing at Leicester and Wincanton still looks doubtful with frost still in the ground, so we shall have a quick look first at Clonmel, with Irish N.H. racing, and Lingfield (all-weather flat racing), although zhe cards at both tracks are very uninspiring. Willie Mullins, as usual, looks the trainer to follow at Clonmel. He can have 3 winners - Fatcatinthehat (Ruby Walsh) in the opening 3yo maiden hurdle at 13.45, Glens Melody (Paddy Mullins) in the mares maiden hurdle half an hour later, and Ballycasey (Paddy) in the concluding bumper at 16.45. Mullins also saddles Cadspeed (Walsh) in the beginners chase at 15.45. but this one has already run 5 times over fences without convincing; this ace has quite a strong field, but the one to beat on form over the sticks must be The Real Article (Edward O´Grady/ PF Mangan), who was a smart hurdler but now runs over fences for the first time.

The best teace at Lingfield is the 6 furlongs handicap at 15.25. Lightly-raced 3yo Mezzotint (Marco Botti/ Adam Kirby) is the likely favourite here. He has already shown good form on the all-weather -though not here- but he has not run since winning at Windsor in June. Swiss Cross (Phil McEntee/ David Probert) can be preferred on current form, and ran a strong race over this CD on his second last start. An interesting outsider here is Valery Borzov (Richard Fahey/ William Carson), who has little a-w experience but has come down a long way in the weights following a poor campaign on turf this year. On his best earlier form he is thrown in here. The 5 furlongs handicap half an hour later is also quite open, but we like Havin´a Good Time (Roger Varian/ Andrea Atzeni). Another lightly-raced 3yo, he has won 3 of his 6 starts, including this CD in September; he is up on the weights, but we think he can improve further.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fatcatinthehat - Volt Sun - Dayrina
2. Race: Glens Melody - Sophies Shadow - Miss Palm
3. Race: Pretty Happy - War Of Words - Jack The Ref
4. Race: Dont Back Down - Troll D`oudairies - Dangan Daylight
5. Race: The Real Article - Lucky Spring - Please Talk
6. Race: Jack Bene - Karinga Queen - Urban Gale
7. Race: Ballycasey - Fairy Court - Bronco Mcmahon