Lexus Chase at Leopardstown

Ireland has easily the best racing today, and the Lexus Chase over 3 miles at 16.00 CET at Leopardstown has arguably a stronger field than the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. Flemenstar (Peter Casey/ Andrew Lynch) and Sir des Champs (Willie Mullins/ Davy Russell) are both shorter in the Gold Cup betting than Kempton winner Long Run, and if either wins convincingly today they will almost certainly start clear favourite for Cheltenham. Sir des Champs has always been regarded as a serious Cheltenham contender, but after winning his first 7 races, was put in his place by Flemenstar last time. That race was over 2 1/2 miles, and Mullins´ horse gets today´s trip well enough, while the Casey star, who has won his last 7, tries it for the first time. This could give Sir des Champs an advantage today, but Casey - famous for his indiscreet post-race interviews- is still very confident. It is by no means a two horse race and Hidden Cyclone (Shark Hanlon/ Andrew McNamara) and Tidal Bay (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Walsh) should both enter calculations. The former has won 9 of his 11 races, and his narrow defeat by Sir des Champs here in January was his only loss in over 2 years. Tidal Bay, who won the Arkle for Howard Johnson back in 2008, has found a new lease of life under Paul Nicholls, and his performance when runner-up under top-weight in the Hennessy must give him a good chance here. The days when he was regarded as a problem horse are long gone and Ruby knows how to ride him. Pandorama (Noel Meade/ Paul Carberry) won this race in 2009, but has been off the track for 2 years and it will be an amazing feat if he is able to win it again today. At the likely odds, we think that Tidal Bay (each way) is the safest bet here.

The other Grade One on the card is the Topaz Novice Chase over 3 miles at 15.25. Willie Mullins has surprisingly never won this, but has two good chances now with Aupcharlie (Lynch) and Back in Focus (Walsh), of whom the latter is the more experienced and therefore preferred. He beat Lyrene Legend (Dessie Hughes/ Bryan Cooper) easily enough last time and should confirm that form, but the Giggonstown House runners Dedigout (Tony Martin/ Davy Russell), a top novice hurdler last season, and Troytown winner Tofino Bay (Hughes/ Berry Geraghty) look dangerous.

The Grade Two Christmas Hurdle, also over 3 miles at 14.25, is another strong race, wkith the first four from the Hatton´s Grace renewing rivalry: Zaidpour (Mullins/ Walsh) won this race from Monksland (Meade/ Carberry) Voler la Vedette (Colm Murphy/ Lynch) - beaten favourite- and So Young (Mullins/ Casey). This race is half a mile further but Zaidpour stays well enough and can confirm the form. An interesting runner here is Weapons Amnesty (Charlie Byrnes/ Russell), who has not run since winning the RSA Chase at Cheltenham in 2010, and it is hardly likely that he will be sharp enough to win today, but he should certainly be watched for future reference.
There is also decent jumps racing at Limerick, where Willie Mullins might start a successful day by winning the Grade Three novice hurdle at 14.35 with Pride of the Parish (Paul Townend), who gets 6 lbs from his main rival Our Vinnie (Byrnes/ Niall Madden). In the veterans´ handicap chase over 2 3/4 miles at 16.10 we like Ponmeoath (Eric McNamara/ RJ Jones), who is certainly not as good as he used to be, but has come down a long way in the weights; course specialist Doctor Woodfield, runner-up here last year, is one of many dangers.