Thursday, December 27, 2012

Kempton Christmas meeting: second day

Kempton continues with another high class card, including 3 Grade Two races, all with small fields but still quite competitive. We start with the novice chase at 13.55 CET, in which Simonsig (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) will be the hottest favourite of the day. Winner of 6 of his 7 races, including at Cheltenham and Aintree, he looks destined to go right to the top. With his stable in great form ( 4 winners here yesterday!) few will be willing to take him on, but we shall have a little bet on Hinterland (Paul Nicholls/ Ruby Wslsh) just in case. He is pretty useful and gets 10 lbs from the favourite, which must just swing it. Nothing else is likely to get a look-in. The Peterborough Chase over 2 1/2 miles at 15.05 has already been transferred twice, after its original home of Huntingdon was flooded. For Non Stop (Nick Williams/ Noel Fehily) runs here in preference to yesterday´s King George, but this looks looks tough. We prefer German-bred Ghizao (Nicholls/Walsh), who wa s just behind him last time at Ascot, and Menorah (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson), who was the best of these over hurdles; he has not so far been so convincing over fences, but after Captain Chris´ great run yesterday, we know that this is another team in good form. They have another big chance in the following Desert Orchid Chase at 15.40 with Wishfull Thinking. He is the only one of the 5 runners that did not run last time in the Tingle Creek, won in such splendid style by Sprinter Sacre. Kumbeshwar (Alan King/ Robert Thornton) ran on to take the runner-up spot then, with Sanctuaire (Nicholls/ Walsh) third, Idarah (Venetia Williams/ Liam Treadwell) fourth and His Excellency (David Piper/ Tom Scudamore) fifth. Althougn Sanctuaire is now worse off at the weights with them all, we still expect him to come out best of them this time, but His Excellency, who is only 4 and has run another good race since, also has possibilities. The opening 3yo hurdle at 13.25 could be tricky, although ex-French Irish Saint (Nicholls/ Walsh) is the likely hot favourite on his British debut; he won a listed race at Auteuil last time. However he has to give quite a bit of weight to such as ex-Irish Allowed (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan) and ex-German King Arthur (Charlie Mann/ Noel Fehily), who has some decent form for Mario Hofer, and is no certainty. Bottom-weight Tweedledrum (Tom Symonds/ Benjamin Poste) has each-way prospects in the mares handicap hurdle over 3 miles at 14.30, while Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty have two more good chances in the final two handicaps at 16.15 and 16.45 with Spirit River and All the Aces.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Mcvicar - Captain Cardington - Allowed
2. Race: Hinterland - Royale`S Charter - Wings Of Smoke
3. Race: Swincombe Flame - One Lucky Lady - Miss Milborne
4. Race: French Opera - For Non Stop - Menorah
5. Race: Wishfull Thinking - Kumbeshwar - His Excellency
6. Race: Spirit River - Our Bomber Harris - Brackloon High
7. Race: Scorched Son - Albert Hall - Able Deputy