Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Good racing at Newbury

Today´s Newbury card is well above average for a Wednesday, and the most interesting event could be the maiden hurdle at 14.20 CET with 19 runners, several of them useful recruits from the flat. Notable among them is Poet (Clive Cox/ Dominic Elsworth), who was a genuine group race performer and makes his hurdling debut today. If he jumps round fluently and gets the run of the race (he was usually a front-runner on the flat) he should win, but he is not a good betting proposition, as flat form does not always work out over jumps.´Arabian Heights (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson) and Veloce (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) are other useful flat runners going for ther first time over the sticks, while King´s other runner Fair Trade (Robert Thornton) and Snake Eyes (Nicky Henderson/ Tony McCoy) both made a good start by running up on their first attempt over hurdles. This race should be watched for future reference, but if forced to have a bet, we would go for Snake Eyes, described b y his trainer as having "huge potential".

Henderson has another interesting prospect in Cocktails at Dawn (Barry Geraghty) in the novice hurdle at 16.00; he fell in his only race so far, a point to point, but is also expected to make the grade. Brassick (Charlie Longsdon/Noel Fehily) has already shown useful form over hurdles, but is penalised 7 lbs for winning on his debut at Huntingdon, while Royal Guardsman (Susan Nock/ Paddy Brennan) was a smart bumper horse when trained by Colin Tizzard. Henderson and Geraghty also have a good chance of winning the opening 3yo hurdle race with Amoralist, but Swynmor (Tim Vaughan/ Michael Byrne) was much better on the flat and can be preferred. There are some potentially smart chasers running in the Graduation Chase over 3 miles at 15.25; Rose of the Moon (David O´Meara/ Jake Greenall) has won both his chase starts in good style, but must give weight to Restless Harry (Robin Dickin/ Henry Oliver), who was a much better horse over hurdles. His form over fences is less convincing so far, but he should still win this. Tullamore Dew (Nick Gifford/ Denis O´Regan) also enters calculations on his old hurdles form.

There is also jumps racing at Ludlow, and all-weather flat racing this afternoon at Lingfield and this evening at Kempton, all at a very modest level. Venetia Williams has runners at Newbury, so it is interesting that she sends her stable jockey Aidan Coleman to Ludlow,amd the pair have good chances here with Last Shot at 14.10, Drumshanbo half an hour later, and possibly top-weight Howards Legacy at 15.45. Best bet here however is Polly Peachum (Nicky Henderson/ Andrew Tinkler), who looks another good prospect for Henderson and can complete a good afternoon for the stable by winning the mares novice hurdle at 16.15.

Our main fancy at Lingfield is Whiskey Junction (Mick Quinn/ Andrea Atzeni) in the second division of the 6 furlongs handicap at 13.30. At Kempton we would have tipped ex-German Aviso (David Evans/ Adam Kirby) at 17.25, but he is drawn 14 of 14, which is normally the kiss of death here, so we shall go for the same team´s Forest Edge in the 5 furlongs handicap half an hour later. This fast improving 3yo has won 5 races since August, and judging by the style of his success at Wolverhampton on Saturday, has not stopped winning yet.

Newbury - betting forecast:
1. Race: Swnymor - Amoralist - Attwaal
2. Race: Honest John - High Kite - Chartreux
3. Race: Poet - Snake Eyes - Fair Trade
4. Race: Chestnut Ben - Red Rock - Double Dash
5. Race: Rose Of The Moon - Restless Harry - Tullamore Dew
6. Race: Royal Guardsman - Uxizandre - Fergall
7. Race: Taffy Dare - Tenmoku - Reach The Beach