Ascot today

Ascot today stages a high class card, but the heavy ground and some small fields mean that it is not at all punter-friendly. Star of the show is Simonsig (Nicky Henderson/ Barry Geraghty) who makes his eagerly-awaited chasing debut in the Grade Two novice chase at 15.30 CET. He was an outstanding novice hurdler last season, winning the championship events at Cheltenham and Aintree, but he has never run on ground as heavy as this. Obviously if he jumps round safely, he should win, but he is not a good bet at the likely long odds-on. Of his 4 opponents there is very little between Act of Kalanasi( Dr. Newland/ Richard Johnson) and Dare Me (Venetia Williams/ Aidan Coleman) on hurdles form, while the other two are both trained by Bob Buckler, including German-bred Sulpius (Jamie Moore), who has won 3 of his last 4 races, including at Folkestone only 3 days ago. He jumps well and acts on the ground, but is of course meeting far stronger opposition this time.

The other Grade Two race is the novice hurdle at 14.55, this time with only 4 runners. Strangely enough, none of the top stables have a runner in this, which should lie between the two penalised runners Meganisi (Rebecca Curtis/ Tony McCoy) and Puffin Billy (Oliver Sherwood/ Geraghty). The latter is unbeaten after winning two bumpers in excellent style and then taking his first hurdle race easily enough. He looks a good prospect, but is also certain to be at odds-on.

A better value bet to our mind is Pause and Clause (Emma Lavelle/ Dougie Costello) in the handicap hurdle over 2 3/4 miles at 16.05. He has npot run since being well breaten in a beginners´chase in June, but the stable is in gtfreat form, and all his best form has been on soft ground. The two penalised runners Dualseoir (Williams/ Coleman) and Spanish Arch (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily), both up 7 lbs for easy wins last week, are the obvious dangers.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Fiddlers Bid - Letsby Avenue - Lookout Mountain
2. Race: Mentalist - Jumps Road - Be Definite
3. Race: Puffin Billy - Meganisi - Up To Something
4. Race: Simonsig - Act Of Kalanisi - Dare Me
5. Race: Duaiseoir - Spanish Arch - Farmer Matt
6. Race: Kings Palace - Captain Cutter - Tiqris