Monday, December 03, 2012

3 poor meetings today

Very low level sport today, over jumps at Plumpton and on the all-weather at Kempton and Wolverhampton.
At Plumpton it is usually a good idea to stick to course specialists, and quite a few of them will be in action today. The 2 1/2 mile handicap chase at 15.10 saw Ballyman (Jonathan Geake/ Micky Grant) and She´s Humble (Liinda Jewell/ Andrew Thornton) take the first two places last year, amd the same could happen again today. Madame Jasmine (Suzie Smith/ Gavin Sheehan) has won 3 times over this CD and can make it number 4 in the stayers handicap hurdle at 14.40, where Twin Bud (Anna Newton-Smith/ Mattie Batchelor), who was runner-up to him last time, can again be the main danger. Just Beware (Zoe Davison/ Gemma Gracey-Davison) is another course specialist and can take the handicap hurdle at 15.40 from Thundering Home (Nick Mitchell/ Tom Bellamy), a 28-1 winner at Kempton last week. Dushy Valley (P Henderson/ James Best) won twice this over this CD in November and can complete a quick hat-trick at the main expense of Beware Chalk Pit (Geake/ Grant), whose only win came over th is CD, in the stayers handicap chase at 16.10.

Oiur big hope here however is ex-German Dawn Twister in the opening novice hurdle at 13.40. A listed class horse for Baron Ullmann, he seems to have got the hang of things over hurdles, judging by his latest win, and can give Pendra (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily) his first defeat. The most interesting race here is the beginners chase at 14.10. Hawke´s Point (Paul Nicholls/ Daryl Jacob) and Pateese (Philip Hobbs/ Richard Johnson) were both smart hurdlers and now making their debut over fences. The ex-Nicholls runner Escort´Men (Tony Middleton/ Nick Scholfield) was equally highly rated, but seems a very difficult ride. If his new trainer can get him to settle, then he must also have a chance in this company.

The all-weather cards today are very poor, with the vast majority of races class 6. The "best" race at Wolverhampton is the 2 mile handicap at 16.30. Italian Riviera (Sir Mark Prescott/ Luke Morris) has won his last 3 races, including this CD, but has shot up theweights and we prefer Tartan Jura (Mark Johnston/ Silvestre de Sousa), who has also shown improved form since stepping up in distance, and after winning at Goodwood, ran well last time over this CD.

The most interesting races at Kempton are the two divisions of the 2yo maiden at 16.20 and 16.50, but with very little form to go on, they are best watched. The 7 furlongs handicap here at 18.20 looks very open; we shall take a chance on the lightly-raced Haaf a Sixpense (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley). After two wins at Wolverhampton, he started favourite for a handicap at Salisbury in May but unseated his rider after stumbling; he has not been since, but if he is back to form, can defeat these opponents, most of whom look very exposed.

Plumpton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Dawn Twister - Workbench - Lord Of The Dunes
2. Race: Hawkes Point - Pateese - Opening Batsman
3. Race: Madame Jasmine - Bunglasha Lady - Twin Bud
4. Race: Ballyman - Inthejungle - She`S Humble
5. Race: Thundering Home - Little Roxy - Just Beware
6. Race: Changing Lanes - Dushy Valley - Beware Chalk Pit
7. Race: Kings Palace - Massini Lotto - Strollawaynow