Monday, December 10, 2012

3 meetings today

Musselburgh has passed an early morning inspection and racing goes ahead with some quite competitve fields. Our big fancy here is Danish-bred King Brex (Neil and Lucy Alexander) in the opening handicap chase for conditional jockeys at 13.20 CET. He has been running over hurdles, but is well handicapped on his old chasing form. The maiden hurdle half an hour later is also quite interesting.

Pure Style (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily) is the obvious one here, having won a bumper last week, but also having shown decent form over the sticks; however Mungo Park (John Ferguson/ Denis O´Regan), useful on the flat although disappointing on his only hurdles start, and Smart Ruler (Jimmy Moffatt/ Brian Harding), runner-up here last time, could both be dangerous. Ferguson and O´Regan have another good chance in the following handicap chase at 14.20 with Creekside, who was listed class on the flat for John Oxx and won his first race over fences in promising style. Everaard (Kate Walton/ Richie McGrath) is a real CD specialist, all his 4 wins over jumps have come here over this distance, and despite his poor recent form, can bounce back in the 3 miles handicap hurdle at 14.50, although in the same race we can´t resist a small e.w. bet on our old favourite Political Paddy (Richard Nixon/ Ryan Mania), who has been dropped to his lowest rating in years.

At Fakenham, the most interesting runner is Ericht in the opening maiden hurdle at 14.00. Nicky Henderson has booked the relatively inexperienced Gary Derwin to partner this frustrating character, who was a top bumper horse two seasons ago but has so far failed to show his form over hurdles. The stable is in great form and we expect him to beat this lot today. Henderson also saddles Cervaro (Mr. J. Sherwood) in the concluding mares novice hurdle at 16.30. She won a bumper last time with this rider up and can now score over the sticks, although Terre du Vent (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan), a smart stayer on the flat when trained in France, is an obvious danger. Today is the trainer´s birthday and is third runner here, Lieutenant Miller (Jerry McGrath) who runs in the handicap hurdle at 15.30 also has a good chance. The Twiston-Davies team is also in good form, and Frontier Spirit can repeat his 2011 victory in the handicap chase at 15.00.

Lingfield is racing every day at the moment as a result of the problems at Wolverhampton and Southwell. Today´s card on the all-weather is pretty moderate, and easily the best race is the 10 furlongs handicap at 15.10. Robin Hoods Bay (Ed Vaughan/ Jimmy Fortune) is the clear form choice here, having been beaten a neck over this CD 12 days ago, but top-weight Mia´s Boy (Chris Dwyer/ George Baker) looks an interesting alternative. He has been running in better company over a mile, and if he stays the extra two furlongs here, must have a good chance in this grade.

Musselburgh - betting forecast:
1. Race: Pickworth - King Brex - Dica
2. Race: Pure Style - Flaming Arrow - Formulation
3. Race: Hazy Tom - Swift Arrow - Creekside
4. Race: Everdon Brook - Word Of Warning - Benmadigan
5. Race: Castletown Bridge - Ubaltique - Rock Relief
6. Race: Dawn Commander - Blenheim Brook - Balding Banker
7. Race: Lord Of Tara - Mister Nibbles - Brijomi Queen