Thursday, November 22, 2012

Market Rasen and Kempton

Only two meetings left today and neither of them very exciting. There are some small fields this afternoon at Market Rasen, 4 races with only 5 runners, and the card is not at all punter-friendly. 10 line up in the novice hurdle at 14.10 CET with Alan King, 2 runners, and Jonjo O´Neill,3, responsible for half of them. King´s stable jockey Choc Thornton rides Uxizandre, not seen out since finishing second in Compiegne in May and he is the likely favourite. Two of Jonjo´s runners are owned by JP McManus, with Tony McCoy on Josie´s Orders, but possibly the Coolmore-owned Minella for Steak (Richie McLernon) could be the best of them; he is also reappearing after a long break- last seen winning an Irish point-to-point 21 months ago -and with so many imponderables here punters should be very cautious. Horses with good recent form are few and far between here. One exception is Billy Cuckoo (Tony Coyle/ Brian Toomey), who won at Wetherby 5 days ago and can follow up under a penalty i n the handicap chase at 16.10. Another is Lean Burn (Barry Leavy/ Alice Mills), who has won twice in the past 8 days and can complete a quick hat-trick in the lady amateur riders handicap hurdle at 16.40; he won this race in 2010, while Endeavor (Dianne and Emma Sayer) took it last year and could again be a danger. If all 8 run, then we think that CD winner Around a Pound (Nick Kent/ Charles Greene) could be a solid each-way bet in the handicap hurdle at 15.40.

Ralph Beckett and Jim Crowley took the main event at Kempton last night and they can repeat the trick this evening with Hurry Up George in the 7 furlongs handicap at 20.10. He won here last December and has mainly run in better class events since; all his previous starts have been at 6 furlongs, but we do not expect the extra furlong to be a problem. All-weather specialist Triple Charm (Jeremy Noseda/ Graham Lee) looks the main danger. Hamdan al Maktoum´s lightly-raced filly Estedaama (Marcus Tregoning( Paul Hanagan) is the obvious favourite in the 1 1/2 mile handicap half an hour earlier; she has won her last 3 races, but is running here for the first time. Into Wain (Steve Gollings/ Joe Fanning) likes it here and is a possible alternative. The two divisions of the mile handicap earlier look tricky, but we think that the two top-weights Rakaan (Jamie Osborne/ George Baker) at 18.40 and Prime Exhibit (David Loughnane/ Shane Kelly) have as good a chance as any.

Market Rasen - betting forecast:
1. Race: Red Jade - Westlin` Winds - Crystal Rock
2. Race: Uxizandre - The Mumper - Minella For Steak
3. Race: Changing Times - Monturgeon - Blackwell Synergy
4. Race: Midnight Sail - Mister Hyde - Dawn Commander
5. Race: Likearollingstone - Markadam - Jasper Massini
6. Race: Billy Cuckoo - Silver Steel - Flichity
7. Race: Lean Burn - Dark Energy - Stormy Morning