Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Listed race this evening at Kempton

The best race at the 4 remaining meetings today in the U.K. and Ireland is the listed race over a mile at 19.30 CET at this evening´s all-weather meeting at Kempton. This looks tricky, especially as several of the runners are best at shorter distances - this applies particularly to Ayr Gold Cup winner Captain Ramius (Kevin Ryan/ Phillip Makin), who is also badly drawn, and Sirius Prospect )Dean Ivory/ Graham Lee). Producer (Richard Hannon/ George Baker) is top-rated here, but as a 3yo giving weight to older horses faces a tough task and is also best at 7 furlongs. The two we like best are Belgian Bill (George Baker/ Ted Durcan) and the lightly-raced Pearl Mix (Ralph Beckett/ Jim Crowley), who both stay a mile well and have good course form as well.

There is also all-weather flat racing this afternoon at Lingfield where the best race is the 6 furlongs handicap at 15.30. Haamaat (William Haggas/ Paul Hanagan) is the favourite here after an easy win over 7 furlongs at this track last time. We shall take a chance on old favourite Docofthebay, one of 3 runners trained by Scott Dixon for his father and the mount of Martin Harley. He is a bit inconsistent but is on a nice weight and likes Lingfield.

There is jumps racing today at Hexham and Fairyhouse, with very soft/heavy ground at both. At the Irish track, Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh look set for a good day; they have 4 runners, all forecast to start favourite. Turban in the hurdle race at 14.15 is in our view the likeliest winner; German-bred Auenschütze rarely wins but is very consistent and should follow him home. Blood Cotil at 13.45, Champagne Agent at 14.45 and Twigline at 15.45 all have obvious chances as well, but are not bombproof and we would not want to take too short a price about them. German-bred High Desert (Arthur Moore/ G Malone) looks an interesting each-way alternative in the maiden hurdle at 14.45.

The Hexham card is poor. The 4 mile handicap chase at 15.10 will take some getting on this ground and we will take a chance on Leac An Scail (Joanne Foster/ Samatha Drake), who goes on the ground but is trying this trip for the first time - as are most of the others. The same team can follow up with Vardas Supreme an hour later.

Kempton - betting forecast:
1. Race: Place That Face - Summer Sun - Ishi
2. Race: Hurricane Hymnbook - Sakhee`S Pearl - Fairyinthewind
3. Race: Rangi - Bold And Free - Brownsea Brink
4. Race: Plenum - Watcheroftheskies - Sam Spade
5. Race: Derwentwater - She`s Some Girl - Katy Spirit
6. Race: Sirius Prospect - Captain Ramius - Belgian Bill
7. Race: Moderator - No Such Number - Six Silver Lane
8. Race: Mutual Regard - Lady Bellatrix - Miss Blakeney