Lingfield today

Lingfield is the only meeting left today and will be staging jumps racing for a change. The ground will be very heavy and although all races look quite straightforward, we can still expect some surprise results and stakes should be kept to a minimum. The opening mares novice hurdle at 13.30 CET looks a match between Hidden Identity (Tim Vaughan/ Richard Johnson), carrying a double penalty, and Shesha Bear (Johnny Portman/ Hadden Frost); they met over this CD last time when the former won by 3 lengths, but the latter has a chance of reversing the form on 7 lbs better terms. We still prefer the former, who had winning form on heavy ground when trained in Ireland. There is a similar situation in the novice hurdle at 14.30 with the penalised Hollow Penny (Alan King/ Choc Thornton) again meeting Until Winning (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan) after beating him last month by 7 lengths at Bangor; this time we will side with the horse with the lighter weight, though again there should be litlte in it. In the following novice chase at 15.00 it is Sire de Grugy (Gary and Jamie Moore) who has to give weight away; he is potentially a smart performer and we think he can still get the better of Cantlow (Paul Webber/ Tony McCoy), who made an excellent chasing debut at the beginning of the month. This is the best race of the day, even though the other 3 runners appear to have no chance.

Gary Moore can double up woth bottom-weight Well Refreshed, this time with his younger son Joshua in the saddle, in the handicap chase at 16.00. Obviously Pete the Feat (Charlie Longsdon/ Gavin Sheehan) is a danger after winning his last 3 races, but he has never run on ground as heavy as this and has so far not shone at this track. Theoretically Pete the Feat is still well in, as he is due to go up in the weights again next week, but we are not sure that he can concede so much weight to Well Refreshed, or to Pensnett Bay (Jo Hughes/ Micky Grant), who ran well at Sandown, for that matter.

Laura Mongan usually does well here and we expect Rosoff (Richard Johnson) to take the handicap chase at 14.00. The handicap hurdle at 15.30 is the only zrickier race of the day. although Dormouse (Marie King/ Tony McCoy) is bound to be favourite after winning the last twice; he has also won on heavy ground, but does seem so well handicapped now. Mongan has possibilities here too with Synthe David (Tom Cannon), while Lindsay´s Dream (Zoe Davison/ Gemma Gracey-Davison) could also go well. Basically these races all look too easy to be true, so be prepared for surprises!

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Hidden Identity - Shesha Bear - Social Realism
2. Race: Topaze Collonges - Rosoff - Sawago
3. Race: Hollow Penny - Until Winning - De La Bech
4. Race: Sire De Grugy - Cantlow - Aikideau
5. Race: Dormouse - Synthe Davis - Volcan Surprise
6. Race: Pete The Feat - Well Refreshed - Pensnett Bay
7. Race: Chris Pea Green - Salford Lady - Resourceful Miss