Doncaster: final day of flat season

Today´s Doncaster meeting marks the end of the flat racing season in Britain and Ireland, though there will of course continue to be all-weather racing, mainly at a very low level. With huge fields, 147 declared in 8 races (though a couple of non-runners reported), this card looks really tricky for punters, although the ground should be good enough, as Doncaster has missed most of the rain.

The November Handicap over 1 1/2 miles at 15.35 CET is the big betting race of the day, and Sir Henry Cecil´s First Mohican (Tom Queally) os clear favourite here, having won all his 3 starts so far. However he represents no value at all in our eyes, as he has been given quite a high rating for what he has achieved, and his inexperience and high draw are other negative factors. Godolphin have a strong hand with 4 runners; Darley Sun (William Buick) has not won since the 2009 Cesarewitch, and we cannot fancy him over this much shorter trip. However we do like the two top-weights Retrieve (Mikael Barzalona) and Songcraft (Ted Durcan); they will need to be pattern race class to win this, but they are, and Retrieve was runner-up to the top German 3yo Novellist last time in Italy, while at these weights there is nothing between him and Songcraft based on their earlier Newmarket form. Kirthill (Luca Cumani/ Kieren Fallon) and Communicator (Andrew Balding/ David Probert) are both ve ry consistent in this grade, but on their highest ever ratings.

Nicholascopernicus (Ed Walker/ Luke Morris) and Party Line (Mark Johnston/ Joe Fanning) are both last-time-out winners and improving, while Clayton (Kevin Ryan/ Jimmy Quinn) looks dangerous off a low weight. War Poet (David O´Meara/ John Fahy) appeals as the best outsider; he was well behind Kirthill last time, but usually runs well here. This is a very open race, and of course First Mohican may well run out an easy winner, but at the likely prices we prefer the Godolphin top-weights.

There are also two listed races on the card, and Godolphin again have good prospects in the fillies race over 10 furlongs at 15.00 with 3 runners. Sajjhaa (Barzalona) could be the best of tjhem; she was 4th last time to Sortilege in an Italian Group One, and on her previous start in Maywas runner-up to Izzi Top at York. If she can run to that form again, she should win here, although stable-companion Surprise Moment (Jimmy Fortune), down in trip, could be a big danger.

The 6 furlongs race at 176.10 is much more tricky, but we hope that Sirius Prospect (Dean Ivory/ Shane Kelly) can repeat his 2011 victory from Mayson, with Doc Hay (O`Meara/ Joe Fannning) third and Eton Rifles (Steve Williams/ William Carson) fourth. That form would be good enough, but his 2012 efforts have been less exciting. Jack Dexter (Jim Goldie/ Graham Lee) has won his last 3 races in good style,but is meeting better opposition here, and The Cheka (Eve Johnson Houghton/ Fortune) and the lightly-weighted 3yo filly Ultrasonic (Sir Michael Stoute/ Richard Hughes) look the main dangers.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Desert Creek - Sabratha - Fama Mac
2. Race: Les Verguettes - Saskia`S Dream - Fame Again
3. Race: Mar Mar - Flashlight - Future Reference
4. Race: Muharrib - Blazing Knight - Run Fat Lass Run
5. Race: Sajjhaa - Emirates Queen - Surprise Moment
6. Race: First Mohican - Nicholascopernicus - Clayton
7. Race: Jack Dexter - Ultrasonic - Sirius Prospect
8. Race: Well Painted - Louis The Pious - Shamaal Nibras