Betfair Chase at Haydock

The Grade One Betfair Chase over 3 miles at 16.05 CET at Haydock is the big race of the day. The recently-retired Kauto Star won this 4 times, and another Gold Cup winner, Long Run (Nicky Henderson/ Sam Waley-Cohen), attempts to follow in his hoofprints today. He is the highest rated chaser in training and in theory should win this easily. But doubts remain. His performances last season were not totally convincing and the very soft ground is an unknown factor. There are also doubts about his main challenger Silviniano Conti, representing the Kauto Star team of Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh; he has won his last 2 races in impressive fashion but is moving up in grade here and is also not certain to act on the going. The otjer 3 runners are rated well below this pair but an upset seems quite poossible.

The Giant Bolster (David Bridgwater/ Tom Scudamore), who has a German pedigree, was runner-up in the Gold Cup at 50-1, with Long Run a tired third; neither had run since but the son of Black Sam Bellamy seems more likely to go on the ground. Weird Al ((Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) is also coming off a long break, but is possibly best fresh. Finally Cannington Brook (Colin and Joe Tizzard), who has no chance on ratings but has won both his starts here and loves heavy ground, could well be the value here at a big price.

The opening hurdle race for 4yo´s at 13.20 looks a match between Hollow Tree (McCain/ Maguire) and Balder Succes (Alan King/ Wayne Hutchinson). Both ran in the Triumph Hurdle, in which the former finished 7th of 20, while the latter fell. Hollow Tree must give hisopponent 4 lbs here, which could be decisive, but we think he may act better on the heavy ground. The bumper at 14.25 also looks a match between Baltimoar (McCain/ Maguire) and Mister Pagan (Jim Goldie/ Lucy Alexander), both of whom have already shown above average ability.

McCain and Maguire also have a good chance in the handicap hurdle at 13.55, although this looks wide open. The other handovcaps are just as difficult; our two against the field at 15.00 are top-weight Quartz de Thaix (Venetia Williams/ Liam Treadwell), back to form last time after a poor previous season, and Lie Forrit (Will Amos/ Anton Voy), at 15.30 our old friend Los Nadis (Goldie/ Henry Brooke) and ex-French Katkeau (David Pipe/ Conor O´Farrell), and at 16.40 top weight Master Overseer (Pipe/ Scu) and bottom-weight Monsieur Cadou (Tom George/ Paddy Brennan).

Betting forecast:
1. Race: Balder Succes - Hollow Tree - Face Value
2. Race: Ile de Re - Double Ross - Lamb Or Cod
3. Race: Baltimoar - Mister Pagan - Ballyben
4. Race: Quartz De Thaix - Universal Soldier - Dashing George
5. Race: Katkeau - Sivola De Sivola - Saphir River
6. Race: Long Run - Silviniaco Conti - Weird Al
7. Race: Ballybough Gorta - Master Overseer - Trigger The Light