Sunday, November 04, 2012

back to normal

after yesterday´s highlights from Santa Anita and elsewhere, it´s back to normal today. The only flat racing in the U.K. and Ireland is at Leopardstown, just about the last flat meeting on turf in Ireland in 2012. There are two listed races on the card, and Jim Bolger with jockey RP Whelan might take them both: the 7 furlongs race at 15.35 CET with Lady Wingshot, who has a big weight for a 3yo filly, but is the best horse in the line-up, and a 2yo race over 9 furlongs half an hour later with Beyond Thankful, runner-up to the smart Big Break last time. The latter´s trainer Dermot Weld now saddles Imperial Concorde (Wayne Lordan), winner of his only start but in much weaker company. The big betting race here is the November Handicap over 2 miles at 17.05; Weld saddles another lightly-raced runner here Show Court( Liam Roche), but we prefer the improving Call Me Bubbles (Willie Mullins/ Gary Carroll), runner-up here over 1 3/4 miles last time after winning his two previous race s.
Irish jumps racing comes from Cork wkith two graded races. The very promising Rule the World (Mouse Morris/ Davy Russell) should win the novice hurdle at 14.40; he looks a major prospect. Mouse can also take the novice chase at 16.20 with Baily Green (David Casey) who has won his last 6 races; however this is no formality, as he has to give 8 lbs to three useful opponents. The Cork Grand National over 3 1/2 miles at 15.15 is anotnher very opern race. The Bishop Looney (Tom Nagle/ Graham McDermott) won this last year and could go close again off 6 lbs more, but is held on latest running by Raz de Maree (Dessie Hughes/ Bryan Cooper), whose stable is in great form. We shall take a chance on top-weight Tharawaat (Gordon Elliott/ Davy Russell), who has not run since finishing 8th of 40 in the Grand National itself. He is presumably being aimed at Aintree again, but can take this en route.
The two British N.H. meetings at Carlisle and Huntingdon are not very punter-friendly, with very soft ground and plenty of non-runners. At the former track, Jonjo O´Neill has 2 runners in the Cumberland Chase, a handicap over 3 1/4 miles at 16.10; Tony McCoy rides the likely favourite Valley View, who has been off since February, but the other runner Arbor Supreme (Maurice Lineham), who has shown nothing for a long time, is very well handicapped on his old form and might run well at a big price.
Two ex-German runners catch the eye at Huntingdon. Aviso (David Evans/ Aidan Coleman), who won the German 2,000 Guineas 5 years ago, is a bit inconsistent these days, but certainly capable of winning the claiming hurdle at 14.45 if in the right mood and as long as it does not rain too much. Electric Tiger (David Bridgewater/ Tom Phelan) makes his debut over hurdles at 15.55; this looks a weak race and if he jumps well, he could well be involved.

Betting forecast:
1. Race: A Star Is Born - Bunairgead - Fitrah
2. Race: Foundry - Mourani - Ike`s Pond
3. Race: Ballyorban - Harley`s Harley - Barbados Bob
4. Race: Lady Wingshot - Coolnagree - Devotion
5. Race: Beyond Thankful - Orgilgo Bay - Twilight Zone
6. Race: Unaccompanied - Balrath Hope - Cheval Rouge
7. Race: Show Court - The Four Elms - Shu Lewis