Tuesday, November 20, 2012

3 poor meetings left

We are left with 3 poor meetings in the U.K. - two modest N.H. meetings at Folkestone and Fakenham (with some very small fields at the latter track) and even worse racing from the all-weather at Southwell, where all 8 races are class 5 or 6. The "best" race at Southwell is the mile handicap at 16.20 CET, and the much-improved No Dominion (James Given/ Graham Lee) can complete a quick CD hat-trick here.

Fishforcompliments (Richard Fahey/ Freddie Tylicki), who rarely wins but is fairly consistent, looks the main danger. Tony McCoy continues to boot home the winners at an amazing rate and can win the first 3 races at Folkestone, with Old Dream for Nick Giford at 13.40, Sir Fredlot (out of an Acatenango mare) at 14.10 and half an hour later Jonjo O´Neill´s Shutthefrontdoor, an unbeaten bumper horse running for the first time over hurdles. He also has chances at 15.10 on Future Profit and at 15.40 on Mission Complete, both for O´Neill and JP McManus, but these races look trickier. In the latter event Pete the Feat (Charlie Longsdon/ Noel Fehily) is going for a hat-trick, having won both his races since moving to this stable, while German-bred Promised Wings (Charlie Gordon/ Jack Doyle), a son of Monsun, also has prospects. Another German-bred with a winning chance is Sulpius (Bob Buckler/ Andrew Glassonbury), who has gone up 10 lbs for an easy win at Fontwell 10 days ago, but me ets only modest opposition in the handicap chase at 16.10.

At Fakenham, the novice chase over 3 miles at 15.00 is quite interesting., despite having only 5 runners. Brady (Donald McCain/ Jason Maguire) and First Fandango (Tim Vaughan/ Michael Byrne) were both useful handicap hurdlers who started over fences by finishing second, while Sainglend (Sean Curran/ Jack Quinlan) and Mavalenta (Nigel and Sam Twiston-Davies) are also winning hurdlers who make their fencing debut today. We give slight preference to First Fandango, whose overall form is arguably the best and who will be ridden by a good claimer. We also like Roc de Guye (James Evans/ Adam Wedge) who has won the conditional jockeys handicap chase for the past two years and can do it again at 14.30.

Folkestone - betting forecast:
1. Race: Old Dreams - Umadachar - Floral Spinner
2. Race: Sir Fredlot - Spider Zagato - Shamrocked
3. Race: Shutthefrontdoor - Explained - Phone Home
4. Race: Future Profit - Todareistodo - Wily Fox
5. Race: Pete The Feat - Local Present - Just Josie
6. Race: Sulpius - Reste Jeune - Forever My Friend
7. Race: Just Walking Jack - Brantingham Breeze - On The Move